Don’t Take Lightly the Two November Crises

 Don’t Take Lightly the Two November Crises

United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan)

August 8, 2017

 Translation of an Excerpt

After November, Taiwan will face two crises: One is whether the CCP’s 19th National Party Congress will decide to take a hard-line in its policy toward Taiwan. Second is whether Trump visit the Mainland in November according to arrangements and whether a Xi-Trump summit will produce a disadvantageous variable in cross-Strait relations.

Xi Jinping, in his address on the “Six Impermissibles” during the August 1^st PLA Day, said, “we absolutely will never permit any individual, any organization, or any political party to split any piece of Chinese territory from China at any time in any form.” Although Tsai Ying-wen has not yet affirmed the 1992 Consensus, she has cautiously and prudently stayed on this side of Beijing’s red line. However, the other side of the Strait has added fire-power in criticizing the Tsai government. Beijing believes that Taiwan aimed at promoting “de-sinicization” and erecting a framework and system for "Taiwan independence" through revising textbook guidelines; Beijing questions that this is not "maintaining the status quo" but "changing the status quo."

US Secretary of State twice publicly indicated that the US is in the midst of discussing with Beijing how to define anew the content of "one China" in order to meet the requirements of the next five decades. This is a shocking thing. Moreover, as things stand now, the time seems to have been chosen to coincide with Trump’s visit to Beijing to nail down a bilateral consensus. This is what was rumored with frequency in the outside world as a so-called “fourth communiqué.” For the Trump visit, Beijing has made painstaking preparations; in the end, even without signing a fourth communiqué, Beijing will probably ask Trump to take a clear-cut stance on one China and the Taiwan question. Thus, we should not overlook the harm that may befall Taiwan.

The two November crises, one after another; the Xi Jinping, whose consolidated power after the CCP’s 19th National Party Congress; and the visit to Beijing by Trump, known for his lack of cautious thinking, all may possibly cause unprecedented impacts on Taiwan. The Tsai government should not take this situation lightly; it should make all preparations to cope with every contigency.

Attachment : none