“One Fallen Leaf Presages Autumn,” the New Southward Policy after Lee Hsien Loong Visits the Mainland

 “One Fallen Leaf Presages Autumn,” the New Southward Policy after Lee Hsien Loong Visits the Mainland

United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan)

October 1, 2017

 Translation of an Excerpt

In the latter part of September, Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong went to China for a three-day visit; this was his first state visit to the Mainland in four years, receiving a high level reception from China. “ A fallen leaf presages autumn,” from the changes in China-Singapore relations, we can imagine the Mainland’s influence on Southeast Asian countries in recent years; this is not something we can ignore in our New Southward Policy.  

With the rise of China and the relative decline of the United States, Singapore faces unprecedented changes in the Asia-Pacific region. A year ago, Singapore urged to the United States to stay in the Asia-Pacific region, even offering to provide military installations and actively participating in the TPP in a show of support for the United States. However, a year later, the United States underwent a sudden change; Trump declared the US decision to withdraw from TPP, and the US stance on its defense commitment in the South China Sea showed a more pro forma nature than faithful adherence. Singapore must find a future direction for its own security and development.

Within ASEAN, Singapore may be a small state and has always acted as the leading ship with the largest voice, but it has now found that nearly all ASEAN countries have chosen sides under the offensive of “One Belt, One Road.”After last year’s South China Sea arbitration case, Singapore has also found only itself still insists with a loud voice on international norms, while other countries have turned directions, and even the Philippines, which brought the arbitration case, was no exception. As the rotating chairman of ASEAN next year, Singapore, of course, has to watch the weathervane.

ASEAN is the main target for our New Southward Policy; currently the achievements of the New Southward Policy have been limited to visa-free treatment in order to seek tourism, but it has led to public safety problems of the pedaling of sex and narcotics. In the future, it will, moreover, encounter the strategic pressure and compression from “One Belt, One Road.” With Singapore’s case in point, if we want to participate in “One Belt, One Road” to share the interests, economic benefits and political mutual trust are inseparable.

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