Economic Growth Rate Has Been Forecast Higher, But the Public Are Not Enthusiastic

 Economic Growth Rate Has Been Forecast Higher, But the Public Are Not Enthusiastic

 China Times (Taipei, Taiwan)

November 26, 2017

Translation of an Excerpt

The Office of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics (Budget Office) under the Cabinet recently readjusted its forecast for this year’s economic growth rate from 2.11% to 2.58%, a hike of 0.47% percentage points; the readjusted rate will be a three-year high, attracting attention from all circles. The major reason for the increase is that this year’s global economy has been steadily improving and Taiwan's exports have been booming, with exports growing for 13 consecutive months, thus boosting the overall economic performance, in parallel to this development, the unemployment rate in October dropped to 3.69%, the lowest level in 17 years.

Nevertheless, the upward readjustment for the economic growth forecast is not unique to Taiwan. In early October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised this year’s global economic growth rate forecast. If we observe the growth rate forecasts for the three economies that once formed the four little dragons of Asia with Taiwan, Singapore comes in at 2.5%, South Korea 3.0% and Hong Kong 3.5%; the IMF’s forecast for Taiwan of 2.0% was in fact the lowest. For this reason, when the Budget Office readjusted upward Taiwan’s economic growth rate, we should actually view the matter with a "solemn" attitude.

Since the financial tsunami, Taiwan's economic performance has lagged far behind that of advanced countries instead of exceeding them as before, but the ruling and opposition parties seem to be ignorant of these dynamic changes, even feeling complacent about the upward readjustment of the forecast, so much so that the government and the private sector indulge in the "little pleasures in life"; we cannot but have an uncomfortable feeling from the bottom of our hearts.

In order to reverse the risks, there are several areas in which the government must make changes in its performance: One is to stress diversity in industrial development; this requires readjusting the input of resources into traditional industries and the services industry. The second is to reemphasize trade promotion to areas outside of the New Southward Policy, such as Europe, Latin America and Africa, especially the fast-growing emerging markets. The third is to properly handle cross-Strait relations so that Taiwan may, as rapidly as possible, conclude free trade agreements with important trading partners, especially the 16 member states of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which occupy more than half of our exports. However, if we are unable to make effective breakthroughs, then we can only use a “dim future” to describe Taiwan's economy.

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