People Want Economics Card, Not Sovereignty Card

 People Want Economics Card, Not Sovereignty Card

China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan)

March 23, 2019

 Translation of an Excerpt

Taiwan has already undergone the baptism of six direct presidential elections, with nearly every election having been focused on the binomial confrontation between the "economics card" and the "sovereignty card," which has also been an unavoidable attack and defense in the pursuit of the highest office of the land. In 2000 and 2004, Chen Shui-bian played the "sovereignty card" and won: in 2008 and 2012, the "economics card" had the upper hand with Ma Ying-jeou winning playing the economics card. However, in 2016, Tsai Ing-wen changed the steady route; even though the KMT underwent several twists and turns, such as the Ma-Wang Jin-pyng internecine feud, the Sunflower student movement, and the coalition between the White and Green, debilitating its strength substantially, Tsai Ing-wen did not dare to play the sovereignty card because Tsai knew that the public in Taiwan did not support the DPP’s narrative on Taiwan independence.

Now the Tsai government has been in office for three years; cross-Strait relations seriously retrogressed. The economic voters who believed that the DPP would not ruin cross-Strait relations feel deeply deceived. This year's latest polls show that over 50% of the public are worried that the two sides of the Strait could face war because of the reunification-independence issue. The Tsai government not only failed in its cross-Strait policies, agricultural policies and economic policies have not worked either; the grassroots economics is under attack, especially the annuities reforms elicited popular grievances and endless protests, leading to Tsai Ing-wen’s support ratings continual sliding. Last year's nine-in-one local elections forced Tsai to turn back and consolidate the pan-Green basic support, playing the "anti-China card" and the "sovereignty card." However, these campaign tactics were contrary to the structure of vox populi. The latest public opinion polls show that 50% support strengthening cross-Strait economic and trade relations, and only 20% oppose. This is precisely the societal foundation for Han Kuo-yu to rise with the trend of the "Han vogue."And  the DPP’s stunning defeat in the nine-in-one local elections, losing seven counties and cities that used to be ruled by the governing party, was the reason Tsai Ing-wen resigned the party chairmanship in disgrace; it was not lack of communication, but contrary to the vox populi.

However, the DPP not only failed to admit mistakes, rather intensified its efforts to provoke a more serious anti-China complex and sense of crisis, hoping to help its electoral prospects. Lai Ching-te, in an ambush style, announced his decision to enter the party’s primary, challenging the sitting president, Tsai Ing-wen, dropping a bombshell in the 2020 electoral campaign. Lai deliberately coalesced the independence forces of the Formosa Alliance and Chen Shui-bian, hoping to move the campaign axis toward the Taiwan independence path; thus, the dynamic of cross-Strait relations would even more approach the brink, attempting to create terror out of this, changing the direction of public opinion, hoping that the "sovereignty card" would be effective. Lai’s announcement that he would enter the race focused on anti-China as its main appeal, demanding that Chen Shui-bian be pardoned, not emphasizing economic nor bread-and-butter planks.

The DPP, in its campaign tactics, wants the people to choose between war and peace; however, the structure of vox populi shows that what the people in Taiwan want is peace. Between caring for sovereignty and caring for a full stomach, what society wants is striving for the economy.

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