Can’t Give the DPP Four More Years

 Can’t Give the DPP Four More Years

China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan)

November 25, 2019

 Translation of an Excerpt

The electoral campaign has entered a crucial moment; the Tsai government is indeed forcefully playing the anti-China card. With the catalysis of the protests and demonstrations over the amendment bill to Fugitive Offenders Ordinance in Hong Kong, it has all the more been pandering "a sense of losing one’s country", while commenting here and there on the Hong Kong question, thus being considered by the other side of the Strait as "external forces" on a par with the US. Cross-Strait relations will be destined to further deteriorate, and Taiwan’s economy will be in the doldrums as a result.

Since the Tsai government came to office, it has restricted cross-Strait investments, coupled with the New Southward Policy, proclaiming to reduce economic reliance on the Mainland, but after implementing the policies for close to four years, the effect is zero, as reliance of Taiwan’s exports on the Mainland has inversely increased to 41%. As seen from this, the DPP’s plan to use political force for lowering the reliance of Taiwan's economy on the Mainland can never succeed. The pragmatic approach is to handle cross-Strait relations properly, never allowing the economy to be impacted by negative cross-Strait ties.

Certain fundamentalist faction members believe (or expect) the trade war will devastate the Mainland economy, thus delinking Taiwan’s economy with that of the Mainland. However, this kind of thing will not happen because the structure of the Mainland’s economy has changed, with exports occupying less than 20% of the GDP, and exports to the United States occupying 20% of the entire export volume, coupled with the fact that large scale economies themselves have greater room for maneuvering, thus although trade wars cause an impact, it won’t devastate the Mainland’s economy.

Conversely, in the unlikely event that the Mainland’s economy really collapsed, it would truly be a disaster for Taiwan’s economy, because Taiwan’s economy is destined to rely on the Mainland’s economy. The scales of the cross-Strait economies are 20 to 1; the Mainland’s market occupies 40% of Taiwan’s exports, while Taiwan enjoys a trade surplus of more than US$80 billion. If a similar trade war should occur across the Strait, there is no doubt whatsoever that the Taiwan economy would immediately be mired in decline, while the effect on the Mainland would be minimal.

For the electoral campaign, the Tsai government has been publicizing that Taiwan's economy is performing extremely well, but in reality the situation is absolutely not as the Tsai government has said. This year, Taiwan’s export growth rate is negative, and private sector investments are in the doldrums, with its a little over 2% growth rate belonging to the lower bracket growth. In the cross-Strait economic race, Taiwan has lost; in order to sustain growth, it should seek complementarity with the Mainland economy. For winning the election, the Green camp uses cross-Strait relations as a sacrificial offering; in fact, it is using the future of Taiwan’s economy as a burial sacrifice. The voters will not give Tsai Ing-wen four more years.

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