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TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election

icon2012/01/02
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TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election

 

  Source: TVBS

 

January 02, 2012

 

 

1.      The Presidential Election and the legislative elections will be held on January 14th, 2012.  Are you going to vote?

 

  

2011/12/27

2011/12/29

Definitely yes

63%

64%

Possibly

23%

21%

Not Sure

4%

5%

Definitely no

11%

10%

 

 

 

2.  If you were to vote tomorrow, which of the three following tickets would you vote for?

 

 

2011/8/15

8/30

9/14

9/22

9/28

10/12

10/20

KMT Ma-Wu ticket

39%

40%

42%

42%

40%

38%

43%

DPP Tsai-Su ticket

35%

32%

34%

32%

33%

34%

35%

PFP Soong-Lin ticket

16%

17%

14%

15%

14%

15%

12%

Undecided

9%

12%

10%

11%

13%

13%

10%

 

 

10/26

11/10

11/16

11/23

12/1

12/7

12/10

12/14

KMT Ma-Wu ticket

42%

39%

39%

40%

40%

41%

39%

40%

DPP Tsai-Su ticket

33%

38%

39%

38%

34%

37%

39%

38%

PFP Soong-Lin ticket

13%

9%

9%

7%

7%

8%

6%

7%

Undecided

12%

14%

12%

15%

19%

14%

16%

15%

 

 

12/22

12/27

12/29

KMT Ma-Wu ticket

41%

44%

44%

DPP Tsai-Su ticket

35%

38%

35%

PFP Soong-Lin ticket

8%

6%

7%

Undecided

16%

12%

13%

 

2-1. Estimated percentages of the vote the three tickets would get.

 

KMT Ma-Wu ticket

50%

DPP Tsai-Su ticket

45%

PFP Soong-Lin ticket

5%

[Editor's note: The estimated 5% difference between the KMT and the DPP amounts to 700,000 votes out of a total of 17.9 million votes with a 77.9% voter turnout rate. ]  

 

3.  Overall, do you think President Ma Ying-jeou can be trusted?

 

2011/12/27

2011/12/29

Can be trusted

55%

53%

Cannot be trusted at all

27%

26%

No opinion

17%

21%

 

4.  Overall, do you think DPP Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen can be trusted?

 

2011/12/27

2011/12/29

Can be trusted

48%

47%

Cannot be trusted at all

29%

26%

No opinion

23%

27%

 

5.  Overall, do you think PFP Chairman James Soong can be trusted?

 

2011/12/27

2011/12/29

Can be trusted

42%

44%

Cannot be trusted at all

27%

25%

No opinion

31%

31%

 

 

6.  President Ma Ying-jeou has been in office for over three years.  Are you satisfied with his performance?

 

2008/6/17

2008/7/16

2008/8/26

2008/10/2

Yes

41%

30%

41%

23%

No

37%

49%

40%

59%

No opinion

21%

21%

19%

18%

 

 

2008/11/18

2009/5/21

2009/6/10

2009/8/18

Yes

34%

41%

41%

16%

No

52%

40%

37%

65%

No opinion

15%

19%

22%

19%

 

 

2009/9/10

2009/10/7

2010/1/20

2010/3/18

Yes

29%

32%

20%

27%

No

51%

46%

56%

51%

No opinion

20%

23%

24%

22%

 

 

2010/4/25

2010/5/19

2011/3/15

2011/4/7

2011/5/19

Yes

30%

33%

36%

30%

36%

No

48%

47%

41%

50%

49%

No opinion

22%

20%

23%

20%

15%

 

 

2011/6/20

2011/9/22

2011/10/12

2011/12/27

2011/12/29

Yes

32%

32%

32%

40%

38%

No

47%

48%

47%

45%

46%

No opinion

21%

21%

21%

15%

16%

 

 

7.  If elected President, which of the following three candidates do you think is most capable of leading Taiwan to overcome the impact the European sovereign debt crises may have on Taiwan’s economy?

 

2011/12/27

2011/12/29

KMT Ma Ying-jeou

40%

37%

DPP Tsai Ing-wen

22%

23%

PFP James Soong

7%

7%

Don’t know

31%

32%

 

 

8.  Do you know about DPP Presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen’s Yu-Chang Biologics case?

 

2011/12/27

2011/12/29

Yes

74%

71%

No

26%

29%

 

 

9.  Do you think that the KMT is smearing DPP Presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen or exposing a scandal in the Yu-Chang Biologics case?

 

2011/12/27

2011/12/29

Smearing Tsai Ing-wen

33%

34%

Exposing a scandal

32%

33%

Don’t know

35%

33%

 

10.  If you plan on voting for James Soong but decide he is unlikely to win the 2012 Presidential Election, will you switch your vote to Ma Ying-jeou or Tsai Ing-wen, or insist on voting for James Soong?

 

2011/12/27

2011/12/29

KMT Ma Ying-jeou

15%

10%

DPP Tsai Ing-wen

6%

12%

PFP James Soong

75%

70%

Cast invalid votes/Don’t go to vote

1%

3%

Don’t know

2%

5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note: The latest poll was conducted from 18:30 pm to 22:00 pm between December 28 and 29, with 1,362 people surveyed. The margin of error associated with this sample is plus or minus 2.7 % with a 95 % confidence interval

 

 

 

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