Burn Your Bridges: Eric Chu's Four Levers

 Burn Your Bridges: Eric Chu's Four Levers

United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)

A Translation

January 29, 2015

A Summary

The edifice is on the verge of collapse. It is time to save the day. Eric Chu is now KMT chairman. The party's circumstances are dire. He must handle the four levers with caution. One. The Chu-Xi meeting. Two. The National Affairs Conference. Three. The constitutional reform process. Four. The 2016 presidential and legislative elections. Sun Tzu's Art of War says: "If soldiers have their backs against the wall, they will not fear, they will fight to the death.” If Chu handles these four levers properly, he could improve the KMT's chances in 2016. But even if the KMT loses the 2016 election, it may still be able to lead Taiwan back onto the right path. This would be the KMT's contribution to Taiwan, and could well be an asset for the KMT to make a comeback.

＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊

See full text of the editorial below

The edifice is on the verge of collapse. It is time to save the day. Eric Chu is now KMT chairman. The party's circumstances are dire. He must handle the four levers with caution. One. The Chu-Xi meeting. Two. The National Affairs Conference. Three. The constitutional reform process. Four. The 2016 presidential and legislative elections.

These four levers are complementary. Although 2016 is the target, 2020 is also a possibility. Based on current trends, the KMT would find it difficult to win the presidential election in 2016. But Eric Chu must use the election to slow the KMT's fall. The Kuomintang cannot remain in free fall until 2016. Even if it expects to be defeated during the campaign, the KMT must discuss its policy platform in order to formulate a strategy for a comeback in 2020.

Eric Chu must set a strategic goal for 2016. The DPP may win the election, but lose the policy path debate. The KMT must continue its struggle. It is likely to lose the election, but must win the policy path battle.

Take the National Affairs Conference. Chu has indicated a willingness to participate. But he must not allow himself to play a role of one of Tsai Ing-wen's props. The formation of organizing committee of the conference must meet with KMT satisfaction. There must be a proper role for the Ma government, and equal status for the political parties. There must be diversity and balance among the participants. There must be height and depth in the agenda, making sure the KMT has a voice particularly on issues of national identity, amendments to the Constitution, globalization, energy policy, cross-Strait relations, the 1992 consensus, ECFA follow-up negotiations, and other issues troubling Taiwan The Kuomintang must not pass up this opportunity. It must use the conference as a basis for consensus-building.

Tsai Ing-wen wants the National Affairs Conference to serve as a political dowry for her presidential campaign. Following the nine-in-one election victory, she has been either silent or highly selective about the issues she is willing to address. But Eric Chu must insist that the conference be a genuine, in-depth debate. The KMT must set the agenda. It must have the determination to get to the bottom of things. If Tsai Ing-wen ducks the issues, the KMT must respond strongly, then turn them into 2016 election issues.

A constitutional reform is imminent. Tsai Ing-wen seems to have reservations. The KMT, however, must not miss the opportunity to force the nation to hold a constitutional debate. Three main themes should be addressed: National identity, cross-Strait relations, and government structure. None of these should be overlooked. If these issues are not made crystal clear, constitutional reform will be impossible. Therefore Tsai Ing-wen must not be allowed to duck these issues again and again. What would the constitutional reform include? It could include a referendum on whether 18 year olds may vote in the 2016 election, and whether the Legislative Yuan's power to confirm the nominations for the premier should be restored. Once the 2016 elections are over, the KMT should demand further constitutional reform, on the basis of new vox populi, and a public referendum during the 2018 local elections. By then, if Constitutional reforms use “the restorations of the Legislative Yuan's authority to approve premier appointments” as a benchmark, the KMT can still maintain the momentum for constitutional reform after 2016. Even if it loses the presidential election, the KMT will retain access to the bully pulpit.

The Chu-Xi meeting is the most crucial of the four levers. The KMT may lose the 2016 election. Beijing may not be happy. During the Chu-Xi meeting, Chu should therefore reaffirm the 1992 Consensus and even go beyond the 1992 Consensus. It should establish a new benchmark for cross-Strait relations. It should establish a new "divided rule but not a divided nation” concept. On the one hand, the KMT could use it to break new ground for 2016. On the other hand it could pressure the DPP to reform. During the Chu-Xi meeting, Eric Chu should encourage Beijing to sublimate its thinking and help the DPP transform. The Chu-Xi meeting should echo, then surpass the cross-Strait achievements of the National Affairs Conference. 

Let’s get back to the 2016 presidential election. As mentioned above, the KMT may well lose the election. But it must not allow it to become a crushing defeat. It must make full use of these four levers, rhetorically and strategically. It may lose the election, but it must win the policy path high ground. Eric Chu must be willing to burn his bridges. The National Affairs Conference, the constitutional reform process, and the Chu-Xi meeting will allow him to shrug off an albatross around his neck. They will allow him to plan for 2020. With this in mind, should Eric Chu throw his hat in the ring for 2016? There is room for reconsideration. But if the KMT fields another candidate, one unable to wage a respectable campaign, it might never rise again.

For Taiwan, 2016 is a crisis and an opportunity. As mentioned earlier, the shock waves from 2016 will soon buffet Taiwan. A consensus must be reached on such vital issues of national policy as national identity, constitutional reforms, energy policy, globalization, the 1992 consensus, cross-Strait relations, and ECFA. If the Democratic Progressive Party returns to power, it cannot dodge these issues. Otherwise it may win the election, but lose the national policy debate. The KMT may indeed lose the election. But it need not shrink from the prospect. It must take an even tougher line, and remind itself that even though it lost the election, it won the national policy debate.

Sun Tzu's Art of War says: "If soldiers have their backs against the wall, they will not fear, they will fight to the death.” If Chu handles these four levers properly, he could improve the KMT's chances in 2016. But even if the KMT loses the 2016 election, it may still be able to lead Taiwan back onto the right path. This would be the KMT's contribution to Taiwan, and could well be an asset for the KMT to make a comeback.

(Courtesy of United Daily News editorial)

Attachment : none