Backstabbing and Red-baiting: Hung Hsiu-chu's Internal Threats and External Foes

 Backstabbing and Red-baiting: Hung Hsiu-chu's Internal Threats and External Foes

United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)

A Translation

July 2, 2015

Executive Summary:

Former Blue camp legislator Chang Shuo-wen has defected to the People First Party (PFP). Yunlin legislator Chang Chia-chun is "seriously considering quitting the KMT" because she disagrees with Hung Hsiu-chu's “One China, One Interpretation” plank. Changhua legislator Cheng Ru-fen cited health and family reasons for politely declining when the KMT leadership recruited her to run for reelection. Do these developments suggest a rush to jump ship? That will depend on how the KMT and the Hung Hsiu-chu campaign respond.

Full Text Below:

Former Blue camp legislator Chang Shuo-wen has defected to the People First Party (PFP). Yunlin legislator Chang Chia-chun is "seriously considering quitting the KMT" because she disagrees with Hung Hsiu-chu's “One China, One Interpretation” plank. Changhua legislator Cheng Ru-fen cited health and family reasons for politely declining when the KMT leadership recruited her to run for reelection. Do these developments suggest a rush to jump ship? That will depend on how the KMT and the Hung Hsiu-chu campaign respond.

Inside the party, Hung must defend against backstabbing. Outside the party, she must defend against red-baiting. These are Hung Hsiu-chu's internal threats and external foes. They are testing her ability to cope. The best-case scenario is Hung Hsiu-chu shows tolerance and appeases fickle elements within her party. At the same time, she also broadens her appeal and swiftly rebuts any charges of “Communist sympathies.” If Hung Hsiu-chu can do all these, then she can turn the tide. She can catch up to Tsai. In the worst-case scenario, she seems powerless to keep comrades from jumping ship and the Green camp from painting her Red. She would then lose any chance of seizing the middle ground.

According to the most recent poll conducted by this newspaper, Tsai Ing-wen leads Hung Hsiu-chu, 45% to 33%. But, of course, Tsai Ing-wen has prepared many years for this day. Hung Hsiu-chu, meanwhile, has yet to be officially nominated by her own party. Therefore, the shortfall in numbers is understandable. Besides, before her breakout of the pack, she trailed by 40 to 50%. Since her breakout, she has closed that gap significantly. Note also that these numbers reflect 90% Green camp support for Tsai Ing-wen while only 68% Blue camp support for Hung Hsiu-chu. They also reflect that 23% of the Blue camp supports Tsai Ing-wen. Moreover, they reflect 42% centrist support for Tsai Ing-wen, and only 23% centrist support for Hung Hsiu-chu. Clearly, there is more room to grow for Hung Hsiu-ch’s campaign strategy.

Recently, nativist faction legislators within the KMT have been threatening to quit the party or refusing to run. These are the constraints the Hung campaign faces. Hung Hsiu-chu began by offering herself as a vanguard candidate. She has now broken from the pack and become the presumptive candidate. All along the way, her own comrades mocked her, second-guessed her, and obstructed her. Clearly, party solidarity has yet to take place. Chang Chia-chun recently disagreed with Hung Hsiu-chu's “One China, One Interpretation” plank. The disagreement turned out to be a misunderstanding. But it showed how difficult it is to explain Hung’s position to grassroots voters. During the first phase of the campaign, Hung Hsiu-chu's straight talk enabled her to boost Blue-camp morale. But during the next phase, if she sticks this same battlefield, she will find it impossible to broaden her base of support.

The legislative or Presidential nominations for the 2016 campaign require blue camp solidarity. This, however, is not Hung Hsiu-chu's individual responsibility. One. The KMT National Party Congress has been schedule for a late date, showing that the party had no sense of urgency. It lacked any cohesive battle plan. Two. We don’t see any concrete efforts to push for Blue camp solidarity. The KMT party leadership remains helpless. Its elders sit on their hands, doing nothing. Three. Mayor Eric Chu is also the KMT party Chairman; Chu seems to be trying popping up everywhere. The Formosa Fun Coast Water Park dust explosion incident has left him physically and mentally exhausted. Does that mean party matters are being handled by Hau Lung-bin and Lee Si-chuan? If everything is hit or miss, how can this campaign have a clear theme?

Policy integration and narrative are the two other challenges Hung Hsiu-chu and the Kuomintang must overcome. Academics and elected representatives have urged Hung Hsiu-chu to move toward the center. Hung Hsiu-chu's reaction was straightforward. She said she was already at the center. "How then can I move toward the center?" In fact, Hung Hsiu-chu's “One China, One Interpretation” is essentially the 1992 Consensus, Version 2.0. It insists that Beijing accept the existence of the Republic of China. It denies that Taiwan is part of the People's Republic of China. It upholds the sovereignty of the Republic of China. It rejects the use of force as a solution. It refuses to change our constitutional framework and way of life. Clearly, these four insistences refer to a new thinking, and are entirely different from precipitous reunification.

Hung Hsiu-chu must understand that as a Presidential candidate she cannot run on the reunification vs. independence issue alone. She must also offer her thoughts on political, economic, social and other issues. She must allow voters concerned about different issues to identify with her. Hung Hsiu-chu has reiterated her position, but only on cross-Strait relations. She has yet to present her own positions on issues of fairness and justice, social ethics, economic development, cultural identity, and north-south imbalances. She needs to fill in these blanks. If she becomes more aggressive, the Hung Hsiu-chu campaign will be able to attack Tsai Ing-wen's equivocations on economic and social issues. That presents her with a golden opportunity to win over swing voters.

According to our poll, voter favorability of Tsai Ing-wen and Hung Hsiu-chu is about the same. In fact, those who dislike Tsai Ing-wen outnumber those who dislike Hung Hsiu-chu. But in terms of actual votes, those who like Hung Hsiu-chu may not translate their liking into votes. Those who like Hung Hsiu-chu's straight-shooting manner and personal courage, want more in the way of ideas and opinions. Only then can they decide whether she is a capable leader of macro vision. Therefore, after Hung Hsiu-chu earned laurels by breaking out of the pack, her most important challenge now is to quell internal dissent and seize the strategic middle ground. This, of course, also requires an effort on the part of the entire KMT party in an all-out effort.

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