TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election

TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election

Source: TVBS

Aug 30, 2011

1.      The Presidential election and the legislative elections will be held on January 14^th, 2012.  Are you going to vote?

	2011/4/27	2011/5/19	2011/5/30	2011/6/20	2011/7/7	2011/7/21	2011/8/15	2011/8/30
Definitely yes	64%	61%	59%	59%	57%	59%	65%	59%
Possibly	22%	23%	22%	23%	23%	22%	20%	21%
Not Sure	6%	5%	6%	7%	6%	6%	4%	6%
Definitely no	9%	11%	13%	10%	13%	14%	11%	14%

2.      If you were to vote tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you vote for?

	2011/4/27	2011/5/19	2011/5/30	2011/6/20	2011/7/7	2011/7/21	2011/8/15	2011/8/30
KMT Ma Ying-jeou	43%	45%	46%	44%	44%	45%	46%	46%
DPP Tsai Ing-wen	42%	44%	42%	39%	36%	38%	39%	37%
Independent Ellen Huang	-	0%	1%	1%	2%	1%	0%	0%
Undecided	15%	10%	10%	16%	17%	16%	14%	17%

3. According to press reports, People First Party Chairman James Soong may still decide to participate in the 2012 Presidential election.  If James Soong becomes a fourth candidate, and you were to vote tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you vote for?

	2011/7/21	2011/8/15	2011/8/30
KMT Ma Ying-jeou	38%	39%	40%
DPP Tsai Ing-wen	36%	35%	32%
PFP James Soong	13%	16%	17%
Independent Ellen Huang	1%	0%	0.1%
Undecided	12%	9%	12%

4. Do you know the content of the “1992 Consensus”?

Yes	22%
No	78%

5. The “1992 Consensus” means “one China, different interpretations.” Do you approve of “one China, different interpretations”?

Yes	37%
No	30%
Don’t know	32%

6. As far as the current situation is concerned, do you think that relations between the Mainland and Taiwan are hostile or friendly?

	1998/7/26	2002/1/29	2002/2/22	2002/7/22	2002/8/19	2003/3/31	2004/5/24	2006/2/7
Hostile	56%	35%	45%	51%	57%	36%	62%	40%
Friendly	22%	25%	29%	17%	13%	33%	11%	31%
Neither hostile nor friendly	6%	6%	5%	7%	7%	5%	7%	5%
Both hostile and friendly	3%	5%	5%	7%	4%	3%	3%	5%
No opinion	14%	30%	16%	18%	19%	23%	18%	19%

	2006/3/7	2008/11/10	2009/3/11	2011/1/28	2011/8/30
Hostile	47%	32%	33%	34%	32%
Friendly	29%	46%	37%	47%	40%
Neither hostile nor friendly	5%	3%	5%	2%	4%
Both hostile and friendly	4%	2%	4%	3%	5%
No opinion	15%	16%	20%	15%	19%

7. Future Aspirations in Cross-Strait Relations

	2000/3/13	2000/5/20	2001/4/30	2002/8/4	2003/3/31	2003/6/30	2003/12/4	2004/5/7	2004/9/7	2004/12/22
Leaning toward independence	15%	16%	17%	20%	22%	22%	17%	19%	24%	19%
Leaning toward unification	15%	14%	18%	12%	23%	10%	8%	10%	11%	11%
Maintain status quo	56%	55%	49%	58%	42%	58%	66%	64%	54%	59%
No opinion	16%	15%	16%	11%	13%	11%	8%	7%	11%	10%

	2005/3/14	2005/4/28	2006/10/18	2007/3/5	2007/8/29	2008/4/15	2008/10/28	2009/3/11	2009/12/17	2011/1/28	2011/8/30
Leaning toward independence	21%	17%	19%	15%	23%	19%	24%	19%	20%	21%	16%
Leaning toward unification	8%	10%	11%	9%	8%	6%	5%	5%	4%	9%	5%
Maintain status quo	58%	58%	60%	62%	58%	60%	58%	64%	64%	61%	67%
No opinion	12%	12%	10%	14%	11%	15%	14%	12%	12%	9%	12%

8. If there is only one option, do you hope that Taiwan becomes an independent state or reunifies with the Mainland?

	2007/3/5	2007/6/15	2007/8/29	2008/6/9	2008/10/28	2009/3/11	2009/12/17	2011/1/28	2011/8/30
Taiwan independence	55%	61%	65%	65%	68%	66%	68%	68%	65%
Unification with the Mainland	25%	23%	21%	19%	14%	17%	13%	18%	17%
No opinion	20%	16%	13%	16%	18%	18%	19%	14%	18%

9. In our society, some consider themselves as Chinese and some as Taiwanese.  Do you think that you are Taiwanese or Chinese? (no option to choose both Taiwanese and Chinese)

	2000/6/30	2008/6/9	2009/3/11	2011/1/28	2011/8/30
Taiwanese	58%	68%	72%	72%	74%
Chinese	18%	18%	16%	17%	13%
Don’t know/Declined to answer	24%	14%	13%	11%	13%

10. National identity of the people in Taiwan

	1999/7/12	2000/3/6	2000/4/28	2002/8/9	2003/4/14	2004/3/1	2004/9/1	2004/9/7	2005/3/28
Taiwanese	35%	34%	37%	35%	33%	43%	40%	45%	45%
Chinese	9%	8%	9%	9%	6%	7%	6%	9%	6%
Both	50%	53%	51%	52%	54%	44%	45%	41%	44%
Don’t know	5%	5%	3%	5%	6%	6%	9%	5%	5%

	2005/5/5	2006/10/18	2007/1/2	2007/6/15	2007/8/29	2008/4/15	2009/3/11	2011/1/28	2011/8/30
Taiwanese	41%	39%	36%	44%	42%	46%	49%	50%	52%
Chinese	8%	6%	6%	6%	4%	3%	3%	3%	3%
Both	46%	50%	49%	43%	47%	43%	44%	43%	38%
Don’t know	6%	5%	9%	7%	7%	8%	5%	5%	7%

Note: The latest poll was conducted from 18:30 pm to 22:00 pm between August 29 and 30 with 1,256 people surveyed. The margin of error associated with this sample is plus or minus 2.8 % with a 95 % confidence interval.

Attachment : none