TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election

TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election

Source: TVBS

September 21, 2011

1.      The Presidential election and the legislative elections will be held on January 14^th, 2012.  Are you going to vote?

	2011/4/27	2011/5/19	2011/5/30	2011/6/20	2011/7/7	2011/7/21	2011/8/15	2011/8/30	2011/9/14
Definitely yes	64%	61%	59%	59%	57%	59%	65%	59%	56%
Possibly	22%	23%	22%	23%	23%	22%	20%	21%	24%
Not Sure	6%	5%	6%	7%	6%	6%	4%	6%	6%
Definitely no	9%	11%	13%	10%	13%	14%	11%	14%	14%

	2011/9/20	2011/9/22
Definitely yes	56%	57%
Possibly	27%	25%
Not Sure	5%	6%
Definitely no	13%	12%

2.      If you were to vote tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you vote for?

	2011/4/27	2011/5/19	2011/5/30	2011/6/20	2011/7/7	2011/7/21	2011/8/15	2011/8/30	2011/9/14
KMT Ma-Wu ticket	43%	45%	46%	44%	44%	45%	46%	46%	48%
DPP Tsai-Su ticket	42%	44%	42%	39%	36%	38%	39%	37%	37%
Undecided	15%	10%	10%	16%	17%	16%	14%	17%	16%

	2011/9/20	2011/9/22
KMT Ma-Wu ticket	47%	47%
DPP Tsai-Su ticket	35%	37%
Undecided	18%	17%

3. People First Party Chairman James Soong James Soong held a press conference and announced that Lin Ruey-shiung would be his running mate in the 2012 Presidential election.  If you were to vote tomorrow, which of the three following tickets would you vote for?

	2011/7/21	2011/8/15	2011/8/30	2011/9/14	2011/9/20	2011/9/22
KMT Ma-Wu ticket	38%	39%	40%	42%	43%	42%
DPP Tsai-Su ticket	36%	35%	32%	34%	32%	32%
PFP Soong-Lin ticket	13%	16%	17%	14%	14%	15%
Undecided	12%	9%	12%	10%	11%	11%

4. Our legislative elections have adopted a "single-seat district, two-ballot" electoral system. Voters cast two ballots, one for the candidate they support, and the other for the political party they support. In addition to casting a ballot for the candidate you support, you also need to cast a ballot for a party. Which of the following parties will you vote for?

	2011/6/7	2011/7/7	20117/21	2011/8/15	2011/9/14	2011/9/22
KMT	38%	36%	37%	36%	35%	38%
DPP	31%	30%	31%	31%	30%	29%
People First Party	2%	3%	5%	8%	6%	5%
Taiwan Solidarity Union	1%	1%	2%	2%	2%	1%
Non-Partisan Solidarity Union	2%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%
New Party	0.4%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%
Other parties	0.5%	0.3%	2%	1%	0.5%	0.4%
Not yet decided	25%	28%	22%	20	24	25%

5. President Ma has been in office for more than three years.  Are you satisfied with his performance?

	2011/6/20	2011/9/22
Yes	32%	32%
No	47%	48%
No opinion	21%	21%

6. No matter for whom you vote, do you like the three following candidates?

	Ma Ying-jeou	Tsai Ing-wen	James Soong
Like him/her very much	8%	10%	7%
Somewhat like him/her	37%	33%	28%
Somewhat dislike him/her	21%	22%	27%
Dislike him/her very much	15%	13%	15%
No opinion	18%	23%	24%

7. Overall, do you think that President Ma Ying-jeou is leading our country in the right direction or the wrong direction?

	2008/6/17	2008/8/26	2008/10/17	2008/11/18	2009/3/19	2009/5/4	2010/2/3	2010/5/17	2011/5/19
Right Direction	54%	49%	38%	47%	34%	48%	37%	47%	51%
Wrong direction	17%	25%	34%	36%	30%	29%	30%	34%	30%
No opinion	29%	26%	28%	17%	36%	23%	33%	18%	19%

	2011/9/20	2011/9/22
Right Direction	44%	45%
Wrong direction	26%	26%
No opinion	30%	29%

Note: The latest poll was conducted from 18:30 pm to 22:00 pm between September 20 and 22 with 1,492 people surveyed. The margin of error associated with this sample is plus or minus 2.5 % with a 95 % confidence interval.

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