Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election

Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election

Source: China Times

October 4, 2011

There are one hundred days remaining before the 2012 Presidential election.  According to the latest opinion poll conducted by the Taipei-based China Times, if James Soong does not run in the 2012 Presidential election, 42% of the respondents said they would support the KMT Ma-Wu ticket and 37% the DPP Tsai-Su ticket, giving President Ma a 5% lead over Tsai Ing-wen.  If James Soong runs, 40% of the respondents stated that they would support the KMT Ma-Wu ticket, 36% the DPP Tsai-Su ticket, and 13% the PFP Soong-Lin ticket, giving President Ma a 4% lead over Tsai Ing-wen.

The poll also showed that 43% of the respondents believed that James Soong should run in the 2012 Presidential election if he succeeded in collecting enough endorsements in his signature drive to pass the statutory threshold (257,695 eligible voters), and 32% of the respondents stated that they hoped that James Soong would not run in the election.  In addition, nearly 40% of the respondents stated that they didn’t believe that James Soong would be able to collect one million endorsements, which he once said would be a deciding factor in his proposed bid.  In that case, 42% of the respondents said that James Soong should not run in the election, while 29% of the respondents stated that he should run as long as he collected the statutory minimum number of endorsements.

The latest poll was conducted between September 28 and October 2 with 1,014 people surveyed. The margin of error associated with this sample is plus or minus 3.1 % with a 95 % confidence interval.

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