TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election

TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election

Source: TVBS

December 7, 2011

1.      The Presidential Election and the legislative elections will be held on January 14^th, 2012.  Are you going to vote?

	2011/4/27	2011/5/19	2011/5/30	2011/6/20	2011/7/7	2011/7/21	2011/8/15	2011/8/30	2011/9/14
Definitely yes	64%	61%	59%	59%	57%	59%	65%	59%	56%
Possibly	22%	23%	22%	23%	23%	22%	20%	21%	24%
Not Sure	6%	5%	6%	7%	6%	6%	4%	6%	6%
Definitely no	9%	11%	13%	10%	13%	14%	11%	14%	14%

	2011/9/20	2011/9/22	2011/9/28	2011/11/3	2011/11/10	2011/11/16
Definitely yes	56%	57%	55%	58%	59%	61%
Possibly	27%	25%	26%	25%	23%	22%
Not Sure	5%	6%	5%	5%	5%	5%
Definitely no	13%	12%	13%	12%	13%	11%

	2011/11/23	2011/12/1	2011/12/3	2011/12/7
Definitely yes	60%	60%	66%	62%
Possibly	22%	21%	19%	21%
Not Sure	4%	7%	5%	5%
Definitely no	13%	12%	10%	12%

2. The Central Election Commission (CEC) confirmed that People First Party Chairman James Soong James Soong has registered as a candidate in the 2012 Presidential Election.  If you were to vote tomorrow, which of the three following tickets would you vote for?

	2011/7/21	2011/8/15	2011/8/30	2011/9/14	2011/9/20	2011/9/22	2011/9/28
KMT Ma-Wu ticket	38%	39%	40%	42%	43%	42%	40%
DPP Tsai-Su ticket	36%	35%	32%	34%	32%	32%	33%
PFP Soong-Lin ticket	13%	16%	17%	14%	14%	15%	14%
Undecided	12%	9%	12%	10%	11%	11%	13%

	2011/10/6	2011/10/12	2011/10/20	2011/10/26	2011/10/31	2011/11/3	2011/11/10	2011/11/16	2011/11/23
KMT Ma-Wu ticket	40%	38%	43%	42%	39%	38%	39%	39%	40%
DPP Tsai-Su ticket	35%	34%	35%	33%	33%	35%	38%	39%	38%
PFP Soong-Lin ticket	13%	15%	12%	13%	9%	14%	9%	9%	7%
Undecided	13%	13%	10%	12%	20%	13%	14%	12%	15%

	2011/12/1	2011/12/3	2011/12/7
KMT Ma-Wu ticket	40%	38%	41%
DPP Tsai-Su ticket	34%	32%	37%
PFP Soong-Lin ticket	7%	12%	8%
Undecided	19%	18%	14%

3.  No matter for whom you plan to vote, do you like Ma Ying-jeou?

	2011/9/22	2011/9/28	2011/11/3	2011/11/10	2011/11/16	2011/11/23	2011/12/7
Like him very much	8%	9%	9%	11%	11%	10%	11%
Somewhat like him	37%	35%	32%	31%	32%	32%	30%
Somewhat dislike him	21%	21%	17%	20%	18%	17%	18%
Dislike him very much	15%	15%	17%	16%	18%	16%	15%
No opinion	18%	21%	25%	23%	21%	25%	25%

4.  No matter for whom you plan to vote, do you like Tsai Ing-wen?

	2011/9/22	2011/9/28	2011/11/3	2011/11/10	2011/11/16	2011/11/23	2011/12/7
Like her very much	10%	10%	12%	15%	14%	14%	14%
Somewhat like her	33%	36%	30%	31%	33%	30%	29%
Somewhat dislike her	22%	18%	17%	18%	17%	15%	16%
Dislike her very much	13%	12%	13%	12%	12%	11%	12%
No opinion	23%	24%	27%	24%	25%	29%	29%

5.  No matter for whom plan to you vote, do you like James Soong?

	2011/9/22	2011/9/28	2011/11/3	2011/11/10	2011/11/16	2011/11/23	2011/12/7
Like him very much	7%	5%	8%	6%	5%	5%	5%
Somewhat like him	28%	29%	27%	22%	28%	25%	26%
Somewhat dislike him	27%	24%	23%	27%	25%	24%	26%
Dislike him very much	15%	16%	12%	18%	17%	14%	12%
No opinion	24%	25%	30%	27%	25%	32%	31%

6.  Do you know that the 2012 Vice Presidential Election debate will be held on Saturday, December 10^th, from 2 p.m. to 4:30 p.m.?

Yes	57%
No	43%

7.  Are you going to watch the televised 2012 Vice Presidential Election debate?

	2011/12/1	2011/12/7
Yes	44%	38%
No	39%	45%
Not sure	14%	14%
Don’t know	3%	3%

8.  Which of the following candidates do you think will do better in the 2012 Vice Presidential debate scheduled for Saturday?

KMT Wu Den-yih	33%
DPP Su Jia-chyuan	19%
PFP Lin Ruey-shiung	2%
Don’t know	46%

9.  If you plan on voting for James Soong but decide he is unlikely to win the 2012 Presidential Election, will you switch your vote to Ma Ying-jeou or Tsai Ing-wen, or insist on voting for James Soong?

	2011/11/10	2011/11/16	2011/12/7
Ma Ying-jeou	11%	19%	8%
Tsai Ing-wen	3%	8%	9%
James Soong	76%	65%	76%
Cast invalid votes/Don’t go to vote	2%	5%	1%
Don’t know	8%	3%	5%

Note: The latest poll was conducted from 18:30 pm to 22:00 pm between December 5 and 7, with 1,683 people surveyed. The margin of error associated with this sample is plus or minus 2.4 % with a 95 % confidence interval.

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