TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election

TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election

Source: TVBS

December 27, 2011

1.      The Presidential Election and the legislative elections will be held on January 14^th, 2012.  Are you going to vote?

	2011/4/27	2011/5/19	2011/5/30	2011/6/20	2011/7/7	2011/7/21	2011/8/15	2011/8/30	2011/9/14
Definitely yes	64%	61%	59%	59%	57%	59%	65%	59%	56%
Possibly	22%	23%	22%	23%	23%	22%	20%	21%	24%
Not Sure	6%	5%	6%	7%	6%	6%	4%	6%	6%
Definitely no	9%	11%	13%	10%	13%	14%	11%	14%	14%

	2011/9/20	2011/9/22	2011/9/28	2011/11/3	2011/11/10	2011/11/16
Definitely yes	56%	57%	55%	58%	59%	61%
Possibly	27%	25%	26%	25%	23%	22%
Not Sure	5%	6%	5%	5%	5%	5%
Definitely no	13%	12%	13%	12%	13%	11%

	2011/11/23	2011/12/1	2011/12/3	2011/12/7	2011/12/10	2011/12/14	2011/12/22
Definitely yes	60%	60%	66%	62%	64%	63%	62%
Possibly	22%	21%	19%	21%	18%	21%	23%
Not Sure	4%	7%	5%	5%	7%	6%	4%
Definitely no	13%	12%	10%	12%	11%	10%	11%

	2011/12/27
Definitely yes	63%
Possibly	23%
Not Sure	4%
Definitely no	11%

2. The Central Election Commission (CEC) confirmed that People First Party Chairman James Soong James Soong has registered as a candidate in the 2012 Presidential Election.  If you were to vote tomorrow, which of the three following tickets would you vote for?

	2011/7/21	2011/8/15	2011/8/30	2011/9/14	2011/9/20	2011/9/22	2011/9/28
KMT Ma-Wu ticket	38%	39%	40%	42%	43%	42%	40%
DPP Tsai-Su ticket	36%	35%	32%	34%	32%	32%	33%
PFP Soong-Lin ticket	13%	16%	17%	14%	14%	15%	14%
Undecided	12%	9%	12%	10%	11%	11%	13%

	2011/10/6	2011/10/12	2011/10/20	2011/10/26	2011/10/31	2011/11/3	2011/11/10	2011/11/16	2011/11/23
KMT Ma-Wu ticket	40%	38%	43%	42%	39%	38%	39%	39%	40%
DPP Tsai-Su ticket	35%	34%	35%	33%	33%	35%	38%	39%	38%
PFP Soong-Lin ticket	13%	15%	12%	13%	9%	14%	9%	9%	7%
Undecided	13%	13%	10%	12%	20%	13%	14%	12%	15%

	2011/12/1	2011/12/3	2011/12/7	2011/12/10	2011/12/14	2011/12/22	2011/12/27
KMT Ma-Wu ticket	40%	38%	41%	39%	40%	41%	44%
DPP Tsai-Su ticket	34%	32%	37%	39%	38%	35%	38%
PFP Soong-Lin ticket	7%	12%	8%	6%	7%	8%	6%
Undecided	19%	18%	14%	16%	15%	16%	12%

3.  Overall, which of the following candidates do you think can be trusted?

	KMT Ma Ying-jeou	DPP Tsai Ing-wen	PFP James Soong
Can be trusted very much	20%	14%	6%
Can be trusted to a degree	35%	34%	36%
Cannot be trusted to a degree	15%	17%	18%
Cannot be trusted at all	12%	12%	9%
No opinion	17%	23%	31%

4.  President Ma Ying-jeou has been in office for three years.  Are you satisfied with his performance?

	2008/6/17	2008/7/16	2008/8/26	2008/10/2
Yes	41%	30%	41%	23%
No	37%	49%	40%	59%
No opinion	21%	21%	19%	18%

	2008/11/18	2009/5/21	2009/6/10	2009/8/18
Yes	34%	41%	41%	16%
No	52%	40%	37%	65%
No opinion	15%	19%	22%	19%

	2009/9/10	2009/10/7	2010/1/20	2010/3/18
Yes	29%	32%	20%	27%
No	51%	46%	56%	51%
No opinion	20%	23%	24%	22%

	2010/4/25	2010/5/19	2011/3/15	2011/4/7
Yes	30%	33%	36%	30%
No	48%	47%	41%	50%
No opinion	22%	20%	23%	20%

	2011/5/19	2011/6/20	2011/9/22	2011/10/12	2011/12/27
Yes	36%	32%	32%	32%	40%
No	49%	47%	48%	47%	45%
No opinion	15%	21%	21%	21%	15%

5.  If elected President, which of the following three candidates do you think is most capable of leading Taiwan to overcome the impact the European sovereign debt crises may have on Taiwan’s economy ?

	2011/12/1	2011/12/27
KMT Ma Ying-jeou	39%	40%
DPP Tsai Ing-wen	21%	22%
PFP James Soong	7%	7%
Don’t know	33%	31%

6.  Do you know about DPP Presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen’s Yu-Chang Biologics case?

	2011/12/14	2011/12/22	2011/12/27
Yes	64%	75%	74%
No	36%	25%	26%

7.  Do you think that the KMT is smearing DPP Presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen or exposing a scandal in the Yu-Chang Biologics case?

	2011/12/14	2011/12/22	2011/12/27
Smearing Tsai Ing-wen	32%	31%	33%
Exposing a scandal	30%	31%	32%
Don’t know	38%	38%	35%

8.  If you plan on voting for James Soong but decide he is unlikely to win the 2012 Presidential Election, will you switch your vote to Ma Ying-jeou or Tsai Ing-wen, or insist on voting for James Soong?

	2011/11/10	2011/11/16	2011/12/7	2011/12/14	2011/12/22	2011/12/27
KMT Ma Ying-jeou	11%	19%	8%	9%	8%	15%
DPP Tsai Ing-wen	3%	8%	9%	2%	5%	6%
PFP James Soong	76%	65%	76%	78%	77%	75%
Cast invalid votes/Don’t go to vote	2%	5%	1%	6%	5%	1%
Don’t know	8%	3%	5%	4%	4%	2%

Note: The latest poll was conducted from 18:30 pm to 22:00 pm between December 26 and 27, with 1,257people surveyed. The margin of error associated with this sample is plus or minus 2.8 % with a 95 % confidence interval.

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