TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election

TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election

  Source: TVBS

January 02, 2012

1.      The Presidential Election and the legislative elections will be held on January 14^th, 2012.  Are you going to vote?

	2011/12/27	2011/12/29
Definitely yes	63%	64%
Possibly	23%	21%
Not Sure	4%	5%
Definitely no	11%	10%

2.  If you were to vote tomorrow, which of the three following tickets would you vote for?

	2011/8/15	8/30	9/14	9/22	9/28	10/12	10/20
KMT Ma-Wu ticket	39%	40%	42%	42%	40%	38%	43%
DPP Tsai-Su ticket	35%	32%	34%	32%	33%	34%	35%
PFP Soong-Lin ticket	16%	17%	14%	15%	14%	15%	12%
Undecided	9%	12%	10%	11%	13%	13%	10%

	10/26	11/10	11/16	11/23	12/1	12/7	12/10	12/14
KMT Ma-Wu ticket	42%	39%	39%	40%	40%	41%	39%	40%
DPP Tsai-Su ticket	33%	38%	39%	38%	34%	37%	39%	38%
PFP Soong-Lin ticket	13%	9%	9%	7%	7%	8%	6%	7%
Undecided	12%	14%	12%	15%	19%	14%	16%	15%

	12/22	12/27	12/29
KMT Ma-Wu ticket	41%	44%	44%
DPP Tsai-Su ticket	35%	38%	35%
PFP Soong-Lin ticket	8%	6%	7%
Undecided	16%	12%	13%

2-1. Estimated percentages of the vote the three tickets would get.

KMT Ma-Wu ticket	50%
DPP Tsai-Su ticket	45%
PFP Soong-Lin ticket	5%

[Editor's note: The estimated 5% difference between the KMT and the DPP amounts to 700,000 votes out of a total of 17.9 million votes with a 77.9% voter turnout rate. ]  

3.  Overall, do you think President Ma Ying-jeou can be trusted?

	2011/12/27	2011/12/29
Can be trusted	55%	53%
Cannot be trusted at all	27%	26%
No opinion	17%	21%

4.  Overall, do you think DPP Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen can be trusted?

	2011/12/27	2011/12/29
Can be trusted	48%	47%
Cannot be trusted at all	29%	26%
No opinion	23%	27%

5.  Overall, do you think PFP Chairman James Soong can be trusted?

	2011/12/27	2011/12/29
Can be trusted	42%	44%
Cannot be trusted at all	27%	25%
No opinion	31%	31%

6.  President Ma Ying-jeou has been in office for over three years.  Are you satisfied with his performance?

	2008/6/17	2008/7/16	2008/8/26	2008/10/2
Yes	41%	30%	41%	23%
No	37%	49%	40%	59%
No opinion	21%	21%	19%	18%

	2008/11/18	2009/5/21	2009/6/10	2009/8/18
Yes	34%	41%	41%	16%
No	52%	40%	37%	65%
No opinion	15%	19%	22%	19%

	2009/9/10	2009/10/7	2010/1/20	2010/3/18
Yes	29%	32%	20%	27%
No	51%	46%	56%	51%
No opinion	20%	23%	24%	22%

	2010/4/25	2010/5/19	2011/3/15	2011/4/7	2011/5/19
Yes	30%	33%	36%	30%	36%
No	48%	47%	41%	50%	49%
No opinion	22%	20%	23%	20%	15%

	2011/6/20	2011/9/22	2011/10/12	2011/12/27	2011/12/29
Yes	32%	32%	32%	40%	38%
No	47%	48%	47%	45%	46%
No opinion	21%	21%	21%	15%	16%

7.  If elected President, which of the following three candidates do you think is most capable of leading Taiwan to overcome the impact the European sovereign debt crises may have on Taiwan’s economy?

	2011/12/27	2011/12/29
KMT Ma Ying-jeou	40%	37%
DPP Tsai Ing-wen	22%	23%
PFP James Soong	7%	7%
Don’t know	31%	32%

8.  Do you know about DPP Presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen’s Yu-Chang Biologics case?

	2011/12/27	2011/12/29
Yes	74%	71%
No	26%	29%

9.  Do you think that the KMT is smearing DPP Presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen or exposing a scandal in the Yu-Chang Biologics case?

	2011/12/27	2011/12/29
Smearing Tsai Ing-wen	33%	34%
Exposing a scandal	32%	33%
Don’t know	35%	33%

10.  If you plan on voting for James Soong but decide he is unlikely to win the 2012 Presidential Election, will you switch your vote to Ma Ying-jeou or Tsai Ing-wen, or insist on voting for James Soong?

	2011/12/27	2011/12/29
KMT Ma Ying-jeou	15%	10%
DPP Tsai Ing-wen	6%	12%
PFP James Soong	75%	70%
Cast invalid votes/Don’t go to vote	1%	3%
Don’t know	2%	5%

Note: The latest poll was conducted from 18:30 pm to 22:00 pm between December 28 and 29, with 1,362 people surveyed. The margin of error associated with this sample is plus or minus 2.7 % with a 95 % confidence interval

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