Suppressed by Beijing, Whither Hong Kong's Democracy?

 Suppressed by Beijing, Whither Hong Kong's Democracy?

United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)

A Translation

September 3, 2014

A Summary

The CCP People's Congress has issued a "political reform package," drawing a line in the sand regarding the Chief Executive elections. It has rejected Hongkongers' demands for "genuine universal suffrage." This move has undermined trust between Hong Kong and Beijing, pushing Hongkongers to a new wave of unrest. For the people of Hong Kong, this is admittedly a huge setback. How should they go on their fight for democracy in the face of such setbacks? They will need farsightedness and calm. They must not allow themselves to be overwhelmed by momentary anger and anxiety.

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See full text of the editorial below

The CCP People's Congress has issued a "political reform package," drawing a line in the sand regarding the Chief Executive elections. It has rejected Hongkongers' demands for "genuine universal suffrage." This move has undermined trust between Hong Kong and Beijing, pushing Hongkongers to a new wave of unrest. For the people of Hong Kong, this is admittedly a huge setback. How should they go on their fight for democracy in the face of such setbacks? They will need farsightedness and calm. They must not allow themselves to be overwhelmed by momentary anger and anxiety.

The resolution passed by the CCP Standing Committee has disappointed even moderate Hongkongers. The main reason is that Beijing not only is unwilling to make even small compromises, it also has dug in its heels and further reduced the size of the birdcage. Hongkongers now feel that Beijing is deliberately oppressing them and reneging on its promises of "one country, two systems."

Hong Kong's pan-democrats are uncomfortable about several constraints. One. The CCP People’s Congress stipulated that Chief Executive candidates shall be nominated by a Nomination Committee. Other methods of nomination, such as by political parties, were ruled out. Two. The Nomination Committee can nominate only two to three candidates. Each candidate must receive majority support from 1200 Nomination Committee members. This provision greatly reduces the chance of pan-democrats from entering the final round election. Three. The People’s Congress declared that if the Legislative Council fails to come up with specific measures based on these principles, the Hong Kong Chief Executive election will continue to use the old Election Committee system, under which Hongkongers will not be able to implement universal suffrage.

Hongkongers in general, and students in particular, are most angry with the first constraint. The CCP has agreed to universal suffrage. Yet it has refused to adopt a more open approach to the nomination of candidates from all walks of life. Instead, nominees are restricted to "those who love the country and Hong Kong." This is the main reason Hongkongers want to Occupy Central. Actually the second and third constraints are more troubling to the Hong Kong pan-democrats. These constraints leave them in a nominally advanced but actually retreated situation. These constraints stir contradictions between them and the average Hongkonger.

Consider their nominally advanced but actually retreated situation. The current approach for the Chief Executive Elections requires the approval of only one-eighth of the Election Committee members to nominate a candidate. The pan-democrats may be few in numbers, but they still stand a chance of nominating their own candidates. Now that Beijing has raised the threshold to one-half however, the pan-democrats are likely to lose any chance to take part in the elections. In other words, Hong Kong may now enjoy universal suffrage in name, but given Hong Kong politics, the pan-democrats may lose the opportunity to participate because of the raised threshold for eligibility, a substantial political blow for them.

To this end, 25 pan-democrat lawmakers out of the 70 members of the Legislative Council have issued a joint statement, expressing their full support for the Occupy Central movement. They also plan to vote against the People’s Congress plan in the Legislative Council, rejecting what they consider an unreasonable Chief Executive election process. But if the new approach fails to pass, then Hong Kong's Chief Executive election will remain a "small circle election." Citizens will be excluded from universal suffrage. As a result, the pan-democrats may be accused of "obstructing universal suffrage." Given their stand on Occupy Central, they may even be accused of "neglecting stability and prosperity of Hong Kong." This could drive a wedge between them and the people of Hong Kong. The pan-democrats must weigh these possibilities and respond wisely. Only then will Hong Kong's hard-won democratic achievements not be lost.

Analyze why the Chinese Communist Party has displayed its iron fist this time. One. It is worried about meddling from the Hong Kong democrats and the so-called external forces. Two. It is concerned about debut of the "Hong Kong model" and its shock effect on the Mainland. Three. It wants to make clear that Beijing will not tolerate threats from the Occupy Central movement. The pan-democrats' reading is that the CCP has no intention of implementing universal suffrage in Hong Kong. That is why it set such a high threshold, hoping that the democrats will retreat in the face of difficulties. In any event, the current situation poses a dilemma for the pan-democrats. If they charge ahead, they could undermine Hong Kong's stability. If they retreat, they could lose whatever foothold they have. Therefore they must carefully determine where to draw the line.

For the moment, the Occupy Central movement appears ready to pull the trigger. It cannot retreat. This is especially true for the younger generation in Hong Kong. Finding it difficult to tolerate a situation in which democracy cannot advance and, they do not want to be constrained. But as far as political, legal, as well as legislative circles are concerned, they probably cannot place all their hopes on street demonstrations. They must try to advance their goals through both the existing system and the parliamentary means.

Many Hongkongers emulated the March student movement on Taiwan. They held high the banner of "civil disobedience," in defiance of Beijing. In fact, the two movements are not at all comparable. The March student movement faced a relatively soft democratic government. Its demands centered on one single issue. Hong Kong, by contrast, faces a set of far more complex issues pertaining to democracy. Standing on their opposite side is Beijing, a force vastly more powerful than the KMT, even in its one-party rule era. In addition, the Mainland has no experience with democracy at all to speak of. Facing these differences in historical and geographical context and political as well as social realities, Hong Kong democrats must allow more time, not wishful thinking, to reverse their fortunes.

On the same day CCP People's Congress announced its Hong Kong political reform package, Macau Chief Executive Fernando Chui Sai-on was reelected with 96% of the vote in a small circle election. Separated by water, Hong Kong and Macao find themselves in different situations. Hong Kong insists on its pursuit of democracy. It has shaken the world. But this is a long road it has embarked upon, one that will require time, patience, and dialogue in addition to confrontation. After all, Taiwan's road to democracy took 30 years. Yet this is all it has come to.

(Courtesy of United Daily News)

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