Coming Up: “One Country, Two Governments”

A Commentary

Coming Up: “One Country, Two Governments”

By Lin Chong-pin (林中斌)

(Former Deputy Defense Minister and Vice Chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council)

Source: China Times

November 5, 2015

ROC President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and PRC President Xi Jinping (習近平) will finally meet in Singapore on Saturday. The factors behind the timing of the meeting include heightened tensions in the South China Sea, DPP Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) bright prospects in the 2016 Presidential Election, and the fact that Xi has consolidated his power within the CCP. In fact, the format of the Ma-Xi meeting that Beijing agreed to indicates that Beijing has virtually accepted the spirit of “one country, two governments.”

Three critical changes in Beijing’s thinking made this breakthrough in arranging the Ma-Xi meeting possible. First, the South China Sea disputes heightened Beijing’s sense of urgency. Beijing sensed that its position on the South China Sea issue, as well as its basis in international law, was not strong enough. For instance, a recent international ruling was not favorable to either the PRC or the ROC. This is because the PRC does not have enough talent in international law and there are no Chinese in the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration. In addition, the ROC has important materials and documents that could help clarify the disputes over the South China Sea, so Beijing has always hoped that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait could cooperate.

Second, the DPP may win the 2016 Presidential Election. Although DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen continues to move towards the center and towards rhetoric that Beijing could accept, Beijing remains skeptical of the DPP’s true intentions.

Third, Xi has consolidated his power within the CCP. In other words, he alone can decide whether to meet Ma, without any concern for internal discord.

The format of the Ma-Xi meeting that Beijing agreed to indicates that Beijing has virtually accepted the spirit of “one country, two governments.” The term “one country, two governments” was first proposed by Tsinghua University professor Chu Shulong (楚樹龍) in June 2011. However, in February 2012, when an official of the Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) under the Mainland’s State Council was asked for his opinion on the term, he replied, “this is purely a scholar’s opinion.” Later, Prof. Chu revealed that in fact, TAO director Wang Yi (王毅) had given his proposal a great deal of thought. According to Chu, “one county, two governments” was an option for Beijing but the Mainland couldn’t accept this term in 2012.

This time, it is presumed that Ma and Xi will call each other “mister” and recognize each other as the “leader” of their respective sides of the Strait. This is the spirit of “one country, two governments.” This is tantamount to Beijing’s recognition of the government in Taiwan, a fact that Beijing was hithertofore unwilling to face. 

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