South China Sea Adjudication: Preposterous Folly

South China Sea Adjudication: Preposterous Folly

United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)

A Translation

July 13, 2016

Executive Summary:

Five judges handed down an adjudication that ignored historical facts and international realities. We could only say that it was at once obtuse and unjust. The tribunal pandered to a certain hegemon, revealed flagrant favoritism, and attempted to change the existing and complex order in the South China Sea with one stroke. We are afraid that the tribunal was simultaneously too naive. Most regrettably, the new government lacked prior group of these developments. As a result, the entire nation was stunned by the outcome. How can one not be distraught?

Full Text Below:

Yesterday the “Permanent Court of Arbitration” in the Hague adjudicated that the PRC had no legal basis for its nine-dotted line claim, and that the ROC's Taiping Island was a "reef" that lacks an Exclusive Economic Zone rather than an "island." This ruling is categorically unacceptable to both Taipei and Beijing. The tribunal ignored facts, revealed its bias, and demonstrated its lack of wisdom. The adjudication would certainly spawn more problems, provoking even more disputes in the South China Sea.

First, in order to grant the Philippines a favorable adjudication, the Permanent Court of Arbitration classified all islands in the Nansha Islands as “reefs.” It even classified Taiping Island, the largest island in the region, which is controlled by the ROC and is clearly an island suitable for human habitation, as a "reef." This, as the Chinese expression goes, is “pointing to a deer and calling it a horse.” The adjudication ignores reality, has zero credibility, and does the ROC a gross injustice. In response, the Presidential Office has issued a statement protesting that the tribunal has never invited the ROC to participate, and has now trampled over our rights in the South China Sea. We will never accept the outcome of this arbitration. We support the government's position, and call on the ruling and opposition parties to back the government on this issue.

Second, the tribunal alleged that the Mainland's nine-dotted line was illegal, thereby trampling over the Mainland's rights and interests. Although the United States and Japan claim that the Mainland, as a party to the "United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea" must accept the arbitration, which is binding. But Beijing long ago announced that it “would not accept, would not participate in, and would not recognize" any adjudications by the tribunal. Dai Bingguo, director of Mainland CCP Foreign Affairs Office, was even more blunt. Dai dismissed the adjudication as "nothing more than a scrap of paper." Clearly, any attempt to change the situation in the South China Sea by the tribunal is an exercise in futility.

In fact, the arbitrary and biased tribunal may well lead to even more disputes. For example, the tribunal first adjudicated that Huangyan Island was a reef. That is tantamount to locating it within the Exclusive Economic Zone of Luzon Island, and thus the Philippines could engage in fishing, oil and gas exploration, and scientific research in waters surrounding the island. But Huangyan Island is currently controlled by the Mainland. Beijing will never retreat. The adjudication may force the Mainland to engage in even more aggressive land reclamation efforts. When Philippine fishing or research boats attempt to enter, even more violent conflicts could occur.

Furthermore, the confrontation triggered by the adjudication may force Beijing to radicalize foreign policy to new heights. Beijing has long regarded the historic waters within the nine-dotted line as China's territorial waters. [Translator’s Note: It seems that the editorial writer misquoted this passage.] Some in Beijing even propose the establishment of a South China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone to defend its sovereignty. Given nationalist sentiment on the mainland, Beijing is concerned about over-zealous actions of the masses. It has instructed relevant agencies to maintain an around-the-clock state of wartime alert to deal with unexpected eventualities.

Before the adjudications were announced, the United States was worried the PLA would adopt further actions on disputed islands and reefs, including Renai Reef and Huangyan Island. The United States felt the need to preempt with military deterrence. Therefore, it dispatched aircraft carriers and cruisers to the South China Sea. Beijing was worried that once the adjudication was announced, the US military would invade the nine islands and reefs controlled by the Mainland. It felt the need to mobilize three fleets, namely, the North China Sea Fleet, East China Sea Fleet, and South China Sea Fleet, consisting of around a hundred warships and warplanes. It held live-fire battle-scenario exercises to forestall any untoward incidents. The two sides maneuvered back and forth through the region, but without any immediate risk of conflict. For now at least, both Mainland and US actions were limited to show of force, not provocations.

The United States and the Chinese mainland confronted each other with a show of force in the South China Sea, without actually clashing. In so far as the two sides of the Strait are concerned, the adjudication was the worst possible outcome. However, as both Beijing and Taipei were losers, it inadvertently averted a further deterioration in cross-Strait relations. Earlier, rumors emerged that the DPP government was prepared to "fine-tune" its South China Sea sovereignty narrative. Rumors were that it might not reiterat the KMT government's historical sovereignty narrative regarding "inherent territory" and the “eleven-dotted line." Its motive? To ensure that the international community did not perceive Taiwan and the Mainland as acting in concert. Now the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague has adjudicated that Taiping Island is not an island. How can Taipei acquiesce to the Hague adjudication on the "nine-dotted line"? The adjudication has thus ironically put Taipei and Beijing on the same side of the South China Sea battle line.

The Presidential Office’s statement over sovereignty yesterday reiterated that the South China Sea islands and their adjacent waters belong to the Republic of China. This is the Republic of China's position and insistence. We absolutely will defend the territory and sovereignty of our country." Such a statement ought not be contributed to provoke the Mainland or tilt toward the US. This is also the sensitive and crucial part of our response to the adjudication.

Five judges handed down an adjudication that ignored historical facts and international realities. We could only say that it was at once obtuse and unjust. The tribunal pandered to a certain hegemon, revealed flagrant favoritism, and attempted to change the existing and complex order in the South China Sea with one stroke. We are afraid that the tribunal was simultaneously too naive. Most regrettably, the new government lacked prior group of these developments. As a result, the entire nation was stunned by the outcome. How can one not be distraught?

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