Taiwan Independence Movement Forces to Be Inhibited Following Trump’s Victory

Taiwan Independence Movement Forces to Be Inhibited Following Trump’s Victory

Source: China Times

November 10, 2016

Mainland experts on the issue of Taipei-Beijing-Washington relations generally hold that the victory of Donald Trump was a setback for President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), who bet all her chips on Hillary Clinton.

Jin Canrong (金燦榮), deputy president of Renmin University of China’s School of International Studies, pointed out that the DPP government had yet to establish any connection with either Trump or his staff. Jin opined that as Clinton lost, Tsai would likely refrain from crossing the red line that Beijing had drawn. However, Tsai would not recognize the 1992 Consensus either, so in the short run, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait would maintain the state of “confrontation without a complete break.”

According to Jing, in the long run, the Trump administration will be unfavorable to Taiwan. While Clinton would have most likely tried to use Taiwan to contain Mainland China, Trump was more likely to turn his back on Taiwan in order to increase US trade with Mainland China. Besides, as Beijing had many chips and cards to play, if the Mainland took an initiative to pressure Taiwan to recognize the 1992 Consensus, as long as the US minded its own businesses, Beijing would not apply too much pressure to force Taiwan to recognize the 1992 Consensus, Jin said, adding that the US would gradually lose its willingness to help Taiwan.

Liang Yunxiang (梁雲祥), a professor at Peking University’s School of International Studies, noted that after Trump’s swearing-in, he would focus more on US domestic issues, but he would not go so far as to abandon Taiwan. However, “the US-Taiwan relationship may become less close,” concluded Liang.

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