Xi Jinping Plans for the Changing Situation While Tsai Ying-wen Still Lingers in the Misty Fog

 Xi Jinping Plans for the Changing Situation While Tsai Ying-wen Still Lingers in the Misty Fog

United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)

March 4, 2017

 Translation of an Except

Surprisingly, Zheng Lizhong, deputy director of the Taiwan Affairs Office under the State Council, was suddenly sacked. The reason for Zheng Lizhong’s fall is not yet clear. However, Zheng Lizhong’s sacking is probably a weathervane in cross-Strait relations. Zhou Zhihuai, director of the Taiwan Studies Institute under the Academy of Social Sciences, retired in the middle of last month. His successor Yang Mingjie  is not a scholar of cross-Strait relations in the traditional sense, but rather an expert in military control, security, and anti-terrorism, someone not well-versed in cross-Strait affairs. Three days later, the National Association of Taiwan Studies changed leadership at the same time, the new president being Dai Bingguo, a former State Councilor, who has been engaged in a big power game with the United States. The two new appointments both seem to point to one logic: Xi Jinping intends to interpret cross-Strait relations under the bigger framework of China-US relations.

Yang Mingjie and Dai Bingguo are both adjustments announced after the "Xi-Trump hotline" call. Beijing initiated these deployments-- deployments made after having noted the foreboding of unease. Beijing has sensed that its rise has made the United States deeply uneasy, that it would be difficult for the two countries to avoid falling into the "Thucydides trap." What has been happening between the two countries, such as the South China Sea conflict, and the United States aggressive deployment of THAAD in South Korea, indicate that there is a high probability that the two countries march towards a full-scale confrontation. The appointment of Yang Mingjie is a deployment planned ahead under such a perception.

From the deployment of Yang and Dai, we can see Xi Jinping’s meticulous calculations and strategic planning about the situation he faces. In contrast is Tsai Ying-wen's negligence and do-nothing attitude. Tsai Ying-wen has been going her own way in dealing with cross-Strait relations, allowing the situation to fester. However, if the United States and China should go to war, it would be difficult for Taiwan to be spared, but rather it would bear the brunt. When Xi Jinping has been carefully and cautiously planning for the changing situation, we implore that Tsai Ying-wen linger not in the misty fog.

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