(Second in a Series of "Let’s Be Candid”) Don’t Allow the Situation to Deteriorate to Reunification Without Dignity

 (Second in a Series of "Let’s Be Candid”)

Don’t Allow the Situation to Deteriorate to Reunification Without Dignity

 China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)

March 27, 2017

 Translation of an Except

The Mainland has determined to march on the road to "oppose Taiwan independence and promote reunification" and offered a series of policies that would facilitate Taiwan residents to invest, live and study on the Mainland, with the hope to fundamentally change Taiwan residents’ alienation toward the Mainland, deepen the spiritual union between the people across the Strait, erect a cross-Strait community of shared destiny, and ultimately march on the road of reunification. Since the Tsai government took power, its policy direction has been diametrically opposed. The axis of economic/ trade policies lies in “de-sinicization” of the market, attempting to substitute it with Taiwan/US trade and the "New Southward Policy." These fundamental economic/trade policies contravene the laws of economics and are destined to face enormous difficulties. Add to this the changing external environment, it is clear that the DPP government’s goals are becoming more and more remote from realization.  

To date, with regard to the promotion of the "fundamental economic/trade policies," though they have not yet failed, the policies have become fragmented; we can forthrightly predict that it would be difficult to achieve any results. With regard to joining the TPP, this had been the main policy for the Tsai government to break through the crisis of being marginalized in the area of Taiwan's economy and trade, and it is the only policy in the play book. However, US President Trump signed an executive order to withdraw from the TPP on his first day in office, making the TPP impossible to sustain. Not only do multilateral free trade agreements pose enormous difficulties for us, if Taiwan plans to push for negotiations with the US for a bilateral trade agreement, Taiwan will probably also encounter obstacles. In international economic and trade policies, the United States is adopting "unilateralism"; this means the Trump government, will place US laws and government decisions at a priority position above international trade norms. Taiwan's external economic/trade interests will thus be impaired.

As for the New Southward Policy, it was originally viewed as a "show," but now it looks more like a farce. By the means of the ASEAN Plus One (the Mainland) free trade zone, which went into effect six years ago, the Mainland has rapidly pushed for trade and investment relations with ASEAN countries. ASEAN's reliance on the Mainland economy has continued to climb in degree. Since the US withdrew from the TPP, the bilateral economic/trade relations between ASEAN and the Mainland will only increase further. It will be more difficult for Taiwan to find an entry point; thus the New Southward Policy may rest in peace!

If President Tsai does not want Taiwan to move toward decline, she should pragmatically face the Mainland market, and pass as soon as possible the bill entitled “Statute Governing Oversight on Cross-Strait Agreements,” using a proactive attitude to reopen bilateral trade negotiations with the Mainland, finishing the cross-Strait Services Trade Agreement and Merchandise Trade Agreement. This is rather the premise for winning competitiveness, and on this basis, we can talk about market diversification, which would then be meaningful in reality.

It is objective economic law for Taiwan and the Mainland to strengthen their exchanges of trade and investment. Man-made barriers and obstacles will only weaken ourselves, and make ourselves more passive. Only if equipped with sufficient strength and competitiveness can Taiwan have more room for negotiations when facing the Mainland; Taiwan will also grasp sufficient autonomy in the progression for reunification in the future. Of course, for all this to be realized, everything hinges on whether President Tsai will pragmatically face the political principle of one China for both sides of the Strait, and this after all is a question of political options for President Tsai.

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