Moon Jae-in Will Likely March Toward a New Midway Path

  Moon Jae-in Will Likely March Toward a New Midway Path

United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)

May 11, 2017

 Translation of an Except

Moon Jae-in of the Democratic Party of Korea was elected as the 19^th-term president of the Republic of Korea with 41% of the vote. Four years ago, he lost to Park Geun-hye with a meager gap; he rolled back and finally fulfilled his presidential dreams. However, today's South Korea is no longer the South Korea of four years ago: the wealth gap has gradually expanded; North Korea’s nuclear threat has become increasingly serious; moreover, the deployment of "THAAD" elicited disputes, both internal and external. All this has predetermined that Moon Jae-in will be a president of bitter circumstances in the five years to come.

On the reality surface, Moon Jae-in could win with an overwhelming majority this time principally because the younger generation supported him whole-heartedly. The younger generation swarmed to the polling stations, besides creating a high turnout rate, it also broke the wall of rivaling camps of "regional politics" that plagued South Korea for a long time, becoming an opportunity for Moon Jae-in’s rise . From the surface of substance, Moon Jae-in’s election this time mainly reflected the South Korean people’s strong dissatisfaction toward Park Geun-hye’s Choi-gate scandal and their impatience toward Park Geun-hye’s "weakling diplomacy" in handling the THAAD question. Under such huge public support, it gave Moon an excellent opportunity to push for "South Korea’s interests uber alles."

In South Korea’s economic policies in the past, there always existed disputes over the paths between "world uber alles" and "South Korea uber alles." Although Moon Jae-in emphasized “South Korean nativism uber alles,” during the nine years under the administrations of Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, South Korea signed many FTAs successively with the United States, the European Union and other big powers; South Korea has thus become an inseparable member of the global economic system. And South Korean conglomerates have also become giants controlling the South Korean economy in the wave of free trade agreements (FTA). Although Moon Jae-in stressed fairness and justice during his election campaign, pledging to reform the chaebol, when it comes to public policies, we are afraid, he has to adopt a relative path of compromise.

Furthermore, in South Korea’s foreign policies in the past, there have always existed disputes over "liberal" and "conservative" paths. The conservative faction is pro-US and anti-North Korea, while the liberal faction is anti-US and pro-China and North Korea. As the son of a North Korean refugee, Moon Jae-in was in favor of dialogue with North Korea; however, under Trump’s hard-line policy, plus the tug-of-war among China, Japan and other countries, they could constitute constraints on Moon Jae-in’s liberal path, moving in the direction of revisions toward equidistant diplomacy.

In North-South Korean relations: Moon Jae-in has a considerable historical sense of mission vis-à-vis reunification of the two Koreas; however, owing to the rapid development of North Korea's nuclear arms progression, it poses a threat to the stability of the Korean Peninsula, unsettling public opinion in South Korea. Under such a reality, although Moon Jae-in advocates dialogue with North Korea, he may not stress economic/trade cooperation.

In US-Korean relations: in the past the liberal faction always harbored considerable “anti-US” sentiments. However, in the last four years, the United States not only secured authority of command over US-Korean forces, it also deployed the THAAD system, and strengthened Japan-Korean military relations; South Korea has become a link in the United States’ rebalancing to Asia. For this reason, in the THAAD question, Moon Jae-in may not adopt a hard-line stance demanding that the United States withdraw it; he may only demand that the United States heed South Korea's public opinion more.

In Sino-Korean relations: the liberal faction has always supported the adoption of a balanced policy between the two big powers, the US and China, but in the latter part of her administration, Park Geun-hye tilted toward the US in a one-sided manner, ebbing Sino-Korean relations. After Moon Jae-in was sworn in, he will make every effort to amend Sino-Korean relations; however, Mainland China has imposed a series of bans against South Korea because of the THAAD question, leading to a backlash in South Korean public opinion. For this reason, Moon Jae-in must also try to ask Mainland China to relax its pressures.

As to the impact of Moon Jae-in’s election on Taiwan-Korea relations, as evidenced by the Park Geun-hye’s instance, personal feelings toward Taiwan cannot be equated to pro-Taiwan sentiments; we must not harbor overly unrealistic expectations from Moon Jae-in. However, if Moon Jae-in returns to the new midway path, he will adjust the earlier Korean economic policies of overly relying on Mainland China and the other advanced, big powers, turning instead to pay more attention to economic/trade balance with other countries; this may perhaps be a turning point in Taiwan-Korean economic relations.

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