Don’t Misinterpret the Mainland Military Aircraft Flying "Around" Taiwan

  Don’t Misinterpret the Mainland Military Aircraft Flying "Around" Taiwan

China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan)

August 15, 2017

 Translation of an Excerpt

From July 13, various types of Mainland military aircraft, in an intensive fashion, flew around the east flank of Taiwan; the aircraft also gradually expanded from the initial number of a single type to mixed formations of multiple types of planes, forming quasi-battle groups, dubbed by the media as "flying around Taiwan." Most media outlets interpreted this as military pressure targeting the Tsai Ying-wen government for not accepting the 1992 Consensus; several scholars and pan-Green groups, on the other hand, believe that this is a military threat against Taiwan, demanding that the Defense Ministry upgrade countermeasures, with some scholars believing that this is a testing drill prior to military conquest of Taiwan. The Defense Ministry, however, considers that the Mainland military aircraft shuttling through the "first island chain" is training over the high seas, in nature, and that there is no need to over-react.

Beijing’s alert has been heightened following the aggravating crisis in North Korea’s current nuclear testing, the dispute over South Korea's THAAD deployment, the fight between China and Japan over Diaoyutai waters, Japan’s reinforced deployment of forces, as well as the US- Japan push for an "Indian-Pacific strategy" from the Pacific Ocean across the Indian Ocean, which actively pulls India to the side of the US and Japan. Moreover, since last June, China’s conflict with India over road construction in the Doklam sector along the Sikkim border has developed into a military confrontation; both sides have respectively deployed heavy forces and staged confrontational military exercises. Seemingly, a conflict could erupt at any time. Thus since July, Mainland military aircraft frequently passed through the first island chain, principally forming restraints against the United States and Japan, and showing Beijing’s muscle. Although it has become normal for the flight path to take shortcuts often passing through our ADIZ, or fly around Taiwan, it cannot be directly interpreted as a threat to Taiwan.

Of course, Mainland military aircraft flying over the high seas will not be limited to training, it also has purposes of reconnaissance and PYSOP warfare against Taiwan; we should naturally be on the alert. However, flights around Taiwan by Mainland military aircraft, in an intensive fashion, in July and August are not apparently targeted against the cross-Strait situation. For in the last three times, Mainland military aircraft included mainly bombers, reconnaissance planes, and electronic warfare aircraft, and no escort by J-20 or Sukhoi jet fighters, showing the PLA has no intention to provoke a conflict. Cross-Strait relations are now at a stage of cold peace and stalemate; Beijing has not changed the fundamental direction of its Taiwan policy of promoting interchanges and peaceful reunification. It is not necessary for us to over-react to the normal training of Mainland military aircraft over the high seas, asking our jet fighters to scramble to the air as a countermeasure every time.

From Mainland China’s recent massive military parade at Zhurihe and the increasingly prominent systematic characteristic of its air force training over the high seas, its combat readiness has become stronger and stronger. The DPP government should avoid any over-reaction out of misinterpreting the PLA's strategic intentions, which could lead to a cross-Strait conflict, but it should also actively restore normal relations of communication, lowering the burden and risks of combat readiness. 

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