We Shouldn’t Be Too Optimistic about the New Year’s Economy

  We Shouldn’t Be Too Optimistic about the New Year’s Economy

United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan)

January 1, 2018

 Translation of an Excerpt

This country's economy mainly relies on the momentum of foreign trade, which left two separate records last year-- consecutive growth for 14 months in export volume and consecutive growth for 16 months in export orders—which may make annual exports reach US$300 billion, a second high in history. This wave of prosperity climb came principally because it caught up with the tailwinds of global economic revival, and not the outcome of the Tsai government's efforts to revive the economy. However, several officials are complacent about this economic performance, but have not sensed the peril that still lies amid this wave of optimistic atmospherics and the challenges before us.

In recent years, our foreign trade performance has been increasingly influenced by Apple; recently, it has met with the less than good sales of Apple’s iPhone X, and the market expects the stocks of Taiwan’s related supply chain to be affected.

The sluggish domestic demand is another Achilles’ heal of the government in striving to revive the economy. Last year Taiwan's economy showed a situation of "externally hot and domestically cold,” seriously lacking momentum in private sector investment. The Tsai government pins its hopes on pushing for the forward-looking construction plans in order to gear up private sector investment; whether the forward-looking plans can truly bring about momentum, we have many questions and doubts.

2018 is an election year; the ruling party usually releases various favorable policies to pander to the voters. However, these kinds of bank checks are mostly denigrated to short-term squandering of cash and they may not necessarily bring about momentum for long-term economic development.

Many variables still exist in this country’s economy in the coming year; the Tsai government should not take lightly, much less strive for politics for the sake of elections while leaving the economic field to lay fallow. At present, Taiwan’s economy is "stable with no vitality." The Tsai government must beware of the dark clouds over the global economy this year, avoiding "stable with no vitality" to fall, becoming "instability with no vigor.”

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