Tsai Gov’t Must Distinguish Superficial Vanity and National Interests

  Tsai Gov’t Must Distinguish Superficial Vanity and National Interests

United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan)

March 28, 2018

 Translation of an Excerpt

Just as the Tsai government was still indulged in the excitement of the "Taiwan Travel Act," but when suddenly it had to face the US-China trade war with reverberations affecting Taiwan's industries, it immediately looked helpless to come up with countermeasures. Minister without Portfolio John Deng went to the United States a couple of days ago to seek exemptions from the additional tariffs imposed by the US on steel and aluminum products, but in the end he returned empty-handed. This shows that although the Taiwan Travel Act satisfied the ruling party’s diplomatic vanity, it however has not much substantive benefits to the nation. Yesterday wire services reported that the United States and China had reached a preliminary agreement in trade consultations; Mainland China committed to expand its purchases of US semiconductors, which would entail reductions of orders for Taiwan. These lightning speed changes reflect that President Tsai has found it increasingly difficult to modify her cross-Strait policies.

Undeniably, the enactment of the Taiwan Travel Act indeed has special diplomatic significance for our country; however, we cannot overestimate the formal meaning of the Taiwan Travel Act, while at the same time overlook the potential risks and costs behind it. The so-called price refers to the fact that more frequent visits of US officials or members of both Houses of Congress will inevitably be accompanied by more pressure of demands for purchases from the United States. US "pro-Taiwan" acts are basically rooted in the consideration of its national interests.

As to the so-called risks, first refers to the fact that if US and Taiwan officials accelerate frequent and high-profile exchange of visits, it could lead to an imbalance in the existing tripartite US-China-Taiwan relations, eliciting retaliation from the Mainland side. For instance, it might move to grab our diplomatic partners, or expand its containment of Taiwan in international organizations and international activities, leading to further compression of our space in international activities. Secondly, it is our unilateral misreading of the Trump administration’s "pro-Taiwan" strategy. On the surface, more US officials may come to Taiwan, but in reality the US and China, however, through negotiations, both on the table and under the table, may have completed more deals; Taiwan's interests may be sacrificed without knowing it.

Overestimating Beijing’s hostility and overestimating Trump’s goodwill are both unwise. What worries us is not Tsai Ing-wen’s cross-Strait policy being hardline, but the rigidity of her thinking in governance. In the "US-China trade war," Taiwan is not only situated in the crossfire of their fight, but is also treated as a pawn by one side and as prey by the other. The cruelest fact is that these two elephants can call a timeout at any time and make peace by shaking hands, while the pawn or prey may well be sacrificed. This is precisely the caveat that Taiwan should heed.

The Taiwan Travel Act has brought us a sweet taste, but it is only fleeting vanity. The bloody trade war affects more national interests; Tsai Ing-wen must distinguish the pros and cons.

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