Shaking Off the Spiral of Hostilities, Don’t Be Trump’s Chess Piece

  Shaking Off the Spiral of Hostilities, Don’t Be Trump’s Chess Piece

China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan)

July 5, 2018

The appointment of Susan Thornton, US Acting Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, a Taiwan hand and a friend of Taiwan, was left hanging for a long time, finally decided to retire at the end of the month. External circles have scrambled to speculate whether Washington’s stance toward Mainland China would turn hardline, and the US-China trade conflicts and the stance on the South China Sea issue would become more acute and difficult to resolve. At the same time, the US has recently made frequent moves, such symbolically elevating US-Taiwan relations, while Beijing is not willing to see the Taiwan independence movement getting noisier, hence endlessly lifting the decibels of warning, and even strongly criticizing the content of President Tsai’s interview with a foreign media outlet. The US-China and cross-Strait relations seem to have become mired in a crisis of spiraling hostilities. The three parties must proactively reestablish dialogues, and they especially should not deepen the crisis in a rash manner of a single party.

Whether Susan Thornton’s successor is a hawk or a dove, our countrymen should not engage in excessive imagination towards the US’ Taiwan policy. Because Trump frequently flip-flops in rhetoric, he is always "much thunder, little rain," causing a sudden turn or large-scale watering-down of policies. Although the US has recently passed a number of bills and new measures friendly to Taiwan, the symbols are still greater than the substance. The Tsai government should not suddenly assume that the US policy toward Taiwan would change greatly and adopt policies in a rash manner.

The US Congress has successively legislated the US National Defense Appropriations Authorization Act and the Taiwan Travel Act, applying pressure on Beijing. The Pentagon also hopes to expand US-Taiwan military exchanges and arms sales to Taiwan. In the US military exercises near the Solomon Islands, Taiwan sent a medical team; the US even plans to station Marines to guard the new American Institute in Taiwan building in Taipei.

Beijing interprets these actions on the part of the US as playing the Taiwan card, challenging China's core interests. As a result, US-China suspicions have become aggravated and cross-Strait relations have also become more tense. When meeting with US Defense Secretary Matiss, Mainland leader Xi Jinping bluntly declared: "For the territory bequeathed to us by the ancestors, we cannot cede even an inch." Matiss indicated that the US was his willing to enhance both sides’ strategic communication, managing and controlling the risks of divergences, but when necessary, will directly counter China; it is obvious that there is no improvement in the mutual strategic suspicions. After meeting with Kim Jong-un of North Korea, Trump turned to push hard his Indo-Pacific strategy, locking in the South China Sea question to hammer Beijing. Recently the Tsai government’s National Security, Foreign Affairs, and cross-Strait agencies have also formed strong combinations for narrative, hoping to further expound on President Tsai’s call, given during an interview with a foreign media outlet, for all countries to cooperate with Taiwan in order to defend the values ​​of democracy and freedom, and counter China’s expansionism, in step with Trump’s tempo to hammer China.

Nevertheless, currently in the US-China wrangling, neither side is going to yield; at this time, if the Taiwan issue is also introduced, it will, we are afraid, radicalize even more the divergences. The Tsai government must not misjudge the situation and become the butt of Beijing’s transferred pressure caused by external forces, creating substantive harm. Whether or not Trump will truly play the Taiwan card, all sides must cope with extreme caution and not rashly adopt moves for a showdown with the other side of the Strait. The US, China, and Taiwan all should shake off the hostile spiral and return to the tract of strategic communication as well as risk control and management as soon as possible, suppressing with concerted efforts the sense of hostilities in order to avoid the break-out of conflicts.

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