Exposed to Double Risks, Politically and Economically, It Is Difficult for Taiwan to Have Smooth Sailing

 Exposed to Double Risks, Politically and Economically,

 It Is Difficult for Taiwan to Have Smooth Sailing

China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan)

July 27, 2018

 Translation of an Excerpt

The global trade war launched by the United States has formally begun. The US is not only launching a trade war against China, the gunfire of the trade war has spread to traditional allies of the US, such as the European Union and Japan, as well as Canada and Mexico, both of which belong to NAFTA.

However, China's current strategy in response is something to be applauded. First, it doesn’t allow Trump to continue his blind-folded moves, but taking the offensive with long-term strategies, thus it has to deploy a poison-needle strategy; though keeping a low profile, but countered with a posture of retaliation of equal value. At a minimum, the US must take into account the corresponding cost that it has to pay in the process of taking the initiative in upping the ante.

Taiwan under the DPP administration politically walks on a path of open hostility toward the Mainland without the slightest hesitancy; siding with the United States in the option of values and geopolitics, begging the United States to help counter China and making itself a chess piece. However, with respect to his own geopolitical neighbors, Canada and Mexico, as well as Europe and Japan, long-term allies of shared values, Trump dared to deal a heavy blow, while being eager to befriend Russia's Putin. This shows that the US under Trump has more and more demonstrated its orientation towards mercantilist interests, and not guided by value systems. This has greatly increased Taiwan’s exposure to political risks.

Economically, Taiwan is highly dependent on the industrial supply chains centered around China and the US; this is a reasonable deployment of manufacturers based on their own comparative interests. The trade war may very likely change the existing trade flows and industrial supply chains, creating a huge impact on Taiwan's existing mode of value creation. The Wall Street Journal named Taiwan and other small but open exporting manufacturing countries as probably the greatest losers in this wave of trade wars. This greatly increases the risks of Taiwan’s economic exposure.

Disastrous blunders of humanity often come from ignorance and bigotry. Under the precarious situation of double exposure to risks, political and economic, can we do nothing except wishing Taiwan people smooth sailing, but leaving them to their own devices?

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