Middle East Oil Crisis: Is the Tsai Gov’t Ready for It?

 Middle East Oil Crisis: Is the Tsai Gov’t Ready for It?

China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan)

August 19, 2018

 Translation of an Excerpt

The Trump government last May withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal that the Obama administration signed with Iran, Germany and the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council, and restarted sanctions against Iran; the second wave of these sanctions came on very strong. The United States claimed that it would cut off Iran’s oil exports starting November 5. Tehran, however, threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off oil exports from the Gulf. An all-out confrontational conflict is likely to break out in the Middle East, turning into a global energy crisis; Iran has become a new colosseum for global strategic coopetition among the US, China, Europe and Russia.

The US-Iran rivalry didn’t start yesterday; bilateral relations have been tense. The Trump government deliberately dealt Iran a heavy blow; Iran, after losing the underpinnings of oil exports, would suffer heavily in its economy. Control of the sea lane through the Strait of Hormuz is undoubtedly Iran’s biggest bargaining chip against the United States. If the Strait of Hormuz is under blockade, it would inevitably lead to turmoil in the international crude oil market; the US, being the world's largest energy consumer country, would face a deadly blow among other countries.

Looking back at the global oil crises since the 70s, the ignition points have all been in the Middle East area. In 1979, the Iranian revolution and the war between Iran and Iraq led to the global oil crisis seriously hurting the global economy, with Taiwan being deeply impacted, while the United States was mired in economic recession. The Strait of Hormuz is not only the maritime lifeline for oil exports in the area region, but also for the Persian Gulf; if Iran would use force to blockade this lifeline, 20% of global oil would be affected, including oil from Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, etc. This double-edged tactic would turn Iran into a public enemy for this region and the world, and would provide an excellent pretext for the Trump administration, which has advocated the use of force against Iran, to send military force. Under such a premise, Iran should not act cavalierly.

The US Trump government accuses China, Europe, Russia, and Japan of taking advantage of the United States, and wanted to unilaterally reset a new world order, from economic/trade to politics, from North Korea to Iran, with no exception, gradually breaking up the international chess game established since World War II. To meet the new chess game, China would like to coalesce with Europe against the United States, while the US would like to coalesce with Russia in containing China. Although each has strategic blind spots, both have deep, creative ideas; for Taiwan, which only knows that it is eager to embrace the US, while being oblivious to the imminent oil crisis, we may indeed be facing crises all around.

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