Abe’s Rebalancing with Both Sides of the Strait; Taiwan Beware of Being Left Behind

 Abe’s Rebalancing with Both Sides of the Strait; Taiwan Beware of Being Left Behind

China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan)

September 26, 2018

 Translation of an Excerpt

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe successfully won re-election as LDP Chairman, and is marching toward his third term as Prime Minister. Abe, dexterous in strategy, has been working hard to improve relations with China, rebuilding big power relationship in East Asia, in order to safeguard the national development and interests of Japan.

As far as Japan is concerned, its position as first among peers in East Asia has been severely pushed and shoved by China, which has been rising with great strength. In the past few years, because of issues such as Diaoyutai, relations between the two countries have been tense; the US, for long Japan’s big brother, following Trump’s presidency, suddenly changed its policies, withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, lambasting Japan’s trade surpluses and market barriers, imposing additional heavy tariffs on Japanese steel and aluminum, and threatened to hike import duties on Japanese automobiles. At this time, a new opportunity for rapprochement with North Korea has appeared; Japan, long bothered by the North Korean missiles flying over its territory, was, however, left behind in the negotiations, such that it had no role to play in the future development of the security interests which so greatly concern itself.

In such a complicated situation, Abe, however, has been coping with speed and agility. In the last two years, he has been striving to improve relations with China. Now, very few conflicts occur around Diaoyutai; in June this year, both sides even set up a "sea and air mechanism for liaison." At the present, using the opportunity of the 70^th anniversary of the "Japan-China Treaty of Peace and Amity," Abe, all the more, strives to mend relations with China, stating publically that Japan was willing to actively participate in China’s "One Belt, One Road" initiative. Both sides have started cooperation in a high-speed rail project in central Thailand, and Abe plans to visit China in October. The new changing situation that  North Korean rapprochement brought to the East Asia pitcture is, of course, a challenges that Abe must deal with; cozing up to  China to give influence to Japan’s advocacies is an entry point that Abe can find to cuit in.

Between the two sides of the Strait, it seems that Abe has begun to push for "rebalancing." In the past, during the impending storm over Diaoyutai, Japan opened fishing grounds to Taiwan; Now, mending relations with China and reconstructing East Asia stability has become Abe’s main diplomatic thinking. Taiwan’s policy of coalescing with the United States and Japan to counter China has been delinked with reality. As far as Taiwan-US relations are concerned, it is a foregone conclusion that the United States will not be driven by Taiwan, even more so for the US under Trump. So far as Taiwan-Japan relations are concerned, Japan, in  trade, business opportunities and the changing East Asian situation must actively stabilize its relations with China, while Taiwan is not a major concern.

Japan's social structure is rigid and conservative, with a conscientious labor force and advanced technology. Despite the burden of an aging population, it has maintained a respectable development pitture. Being able to quickly grasp the changing realities, both domestically and abroad, and adjusting strategic efforts in coping, Abe is expected to be conducive to opening up new opportunities for development and for safeguarding national interests. The international community should be happy if Abe can stabilize Japan-China relations and promote peace and stability in East Asia; however, for Taiwan, cross-Strait policy and foreign policy will be even more difficult.

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