Beware of the US Black Swan in Taiwan's Coping with the Economic Crisis

 Beware of the US Black Swan in Taiwan's Coping with the Economic Crisis

United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan)

March 18, 2020

 Translation of an Excerpt

With the global pandemic of COVID-19, Europe and the United States declared one after the other to have entered a state of emergency; the second wave of the epidemic crisis not only attacks the health of humanity, but also impacts the world economy. China and the US have both suffered heavily from the epidemic situation, with the economy and finances together facing enormous risks. Taiwan has been engulfed in the trade war between the two great powers; now plus the variable of pandemic situation, the current program proposed by the Tsai government in coping with the crisis would probably not be sufficient to deal with the simultaneous arrival of two black swans.

The epidemic situation on the Mainland has been brought under control, with most cities returning to work to repair the supply chains; the PRC also employed all efforts to stimulate consumption and domestic demand. Now, the economic crisis is being brewed in the United States instead. This pandemic undermines US strategy; at a time when the global production chain has not yet been reconstructed, it has been broken by the epidemic situation, and it may even slide into recession because of the epidemic’s wreaking havoc.

If the US cannot effectively control the epidemic situation, this second wave of global economic crisis will certainly have a multiplying impact on the US and China. Tsai Ing-wen pins her strategy for Taiwan's survival on "coalescing with the US to counter China", heightening cross-Strait confrontation amid epidemic prevention and control; this has contracted her room for coping with the situation. Taiwan's economy is still highly dependent on China; if one ignores the risks of the sliding US economy, the cost will be even more egregious.

Attachment : none