The KMT’s Referendum for Returning to the UN

The KMT’s Referendum for Returning to the UN


Referendum’s Impact on Elections
(the Case of the 2004 Presidential Election)

The DPP’s two previous referenda, “Strengthening Our National Defense” and “Cross-Strait Negotiations on an Equal Footing,” were the key factors affecting the presidential election in 2004.

1.The referenda for “Strengthening Our National Defense” and “Cross-Strait Negotiations on an Equal Footing” earned national turnout rates of 45.17 % and 45.12%, respectively. The election results revealed that in the 25 constituencies (counties and cities) with a higher referendum turnout, Lien Chan and James Soong received fewer ballots.

2.The three constituencies with the highest referendum turnout rates were Tainan County, Chiayi County and Kaohsiung County. The four constituencies in which Lien and Soong received the fewest votes were Tainan County, Chiayi County, Yunlin County and Kaohsiung County. There appears to be a very strong correlation between the two results.

3.If we further analyze the constituencies in which Lien and Soong lost, a similar relationship may be found. For example, in nine constituencies, including Yilan County, Tainan County, Kaohsiung County, Pintung County, Chiayi City, and Kaohsiung City, where the referendum turnout rates exceeded 50 %, well above the national average, Lien and Soong suffered election defeat.

4.Those constituencies which had a referendum turnout rate higher than the average, but below 50%, included Taichung County and Changhua County. They happened to be the regions Lien and Soong should have won.

5.In the constituencies that had referendum turnout rates below the average, such as Hsinchu County and 14 other constituencies, Lien and Soong easily won.

Given the fact that the referendum turnout rate was in inverse proportion to Lien and Soong’s received ballots, the DPP is, unsurprisingly, convinced that referendum would be a panacea to its presidential campaign.


The DPP’s Strategy and Approach

The referendum for UN entry has been enshrined as a central campaign platform by the DPP. According to its strategy, as long as the DPP can successfully pin down the major issues of presidential debates to ideological confrontation between Taiwan and Mainland China, the KMT would again be defeated. For this purpose, the DPP seeks to create a stir with its “Three-Warfare Strategy”.

(1) Psychological Warfare─the DPP uses “democracy” as a disguise to agitate the general public.

(2) Legal Warfare─the DPP fabricates various kinds of arguments and discourses, logically or illogically, to justify its pursuit for de jure independence.

(3) Media Warfare─the DPP tries to hype up the so-called “Taiwan consciousness” and “people’s will”, to challenge the international community, and to inflame xenophobia among the Taiwan people.

Additionally, the DPP utilizes three dimentional approaches to win the elections. Internationally, the DPP takes advantage of the UN’s unfair treatment of Taiwan to justify its political adventurism. In terms of the cross-Strait relations, the DPP attempts to cross the line by emphasizing the superiority of Taiwan’s self-identity and separate status. Domestically, the DPP schemes to eliminate the ROC and to build a new nation by promoting its highly controversial “Normal State Resolution”.


The US View

Dr. Thomas Christensen, currently US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, is a top China expert in the Bush administration. On September 11 this year, he directly called the DPP’s referendum(for UN membership in the name of Taiwan )as leading nowhere but to de jure independence. Such conduct is actually changing the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, he said. On behalf of the US government, Dr. Christensen has exposed the DPP’s conspiracy, and sent a crystal clear message to all the Taiwan people that the US’s interest in the Taiwan Strait will neither be influenced by the PRC, nor decided by the DPP.

Randall Schriver, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs also alerted us in the same manner. From a US perspective, the US has no particular opinion with respect to a referendum on topics related to good governance and increasing efficiency. Regarding a referencum that clearly addresses the question of independence and/or sovereignty, the US government will categorically oppose it. As for a referendum that is highly symbolic in nature (i.e., has no consequential impact on governance and policy), but touches obliquely on questions of Taiwan’s status or sovereignty, the US will not support it. The DPP’s referendum for the UN entry under the name Taiwan may not be an actual referendum on whether Taiwan should declare its independence. However, Washington is concerned that such reckless behavior by the DPP would eventually lead to de jure independence.


The PRC View

In the past, the PRC was reluctant to allow the US a hand in the Taiwan issue, since the PRC viewed the issue as an internal affair. Since 2003, the PRC has changed its policy. Both the US and PRC tacitly acknowledge that only by means of a joint mechanism may the two countries prevent the DPP from exploiting the PRC for personal election gains and from abusing the US commitment for military assistance.

Yet, there is also a widespread opinion within Mainland China that if the Americans are incapable of dealing with the Taiwan issue, the PRC, will handle the situation on its own. To counter that opinion, the US, on one hand, has consistently warned Taiwan that if Taiwan unilaterally takes provocative action, the US will not be obligated to offer its military assistance. On the other hand, the US has also reminded the PRC not to overreact. In combination, the US’s ambiguity and the PRC’s anxiety have provided the DPP with opportunities to cross the line and to play up Taiwan’s politics in its favor.


The KMT’s Version of Referendum

The DPP is convinced that a referendum will be the key to win the 2008 presidential election, ensuring its power, and maintaining the so-called “indigenous regime.” In 2003, Chen Shui-bian was determined to hold his “defensive referenda” at all costs. By linking the three notions of “Voting Yes for the Referenda”, “Choosing A-Bian for President” and “Loving Taiwan,” the DPP effectively energized its 2004 lackluster campaign. With the impact of the bizarre and surreptitious “Bullet-gate,” Chen garnered a paper-thin margin to win the presidency. Now, the DPP wants to play the same old tricks. The KMT may have lost the election, but we must know how the battle was lost. The KMT cannot afford to make the same mistake.

Chen Shui-bian once questioned the US government why it was wrong to promote UN membership under the name Taiwan. The answer from Washington has been more than explicit: The US cannot agree with the DPP’s UN application under the name Taiwan because the DPP’s “Taiwan” is essentially the “Republic of Taiwan.” This time, the KMT will not close its eyes to the DPP’s political abuse of referenda. To provide a realistic and legitimate alternative, the KMT drafted its own version of the referendum: we seek to return to the UN with a flexible but appropriate name, if not in the name of the ROC. This is not to follow suit, but to save and protect Taiwan. The KMT wants to present an option to satisfy Taiwan’s need for greater international participation and, simultaneously, to not harm the interests of Taiwan and other countries concerned.

The KMT’s proposal for returning to the UN is practical and feasible. The DPP’s irresponsible referendum will only result in great calamity. Only our referendum combines the best of both worlds─it will not damage our relations with the US, nor will it create any opportunity for the PRC to attack us.

The DPP cares about neither the UN nor the consequence of referendum. Its aim is solely for election gains. The DPP views the 2008 presidential election as its “Holy War” to build a new state and to destroy the ROC. We take this election extremely seriously, not just for our party but also for all our people in this island. The KMT is determined to safeguard the ROC and to protect the people of Taiwan.

The DPP’s referendum for a UN membership under the name Taiwan is analogous to the tragic Titanic. Dramatic as it is, it is still a castle in the sky and its fate is doomed. Our referendum for returning to the UN is different. Our goal is to promote Taiwan’s international participation without jeopardizing the interests of our allies and friends. Our draft is like an unsinkable aircraft carrier, leading Taiwan to an expansive and bright Blue Sea.

Attachment : none