KMT Humbled by Turnout Rate, Not DPP

Commentary

KMT Humbled by Turnout Rate, Not DPP

Source: NOWnews
December 8, 2009
Chih-Yung Ho

In the 2009 local elections, the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) won 47.88% of the vote, down nearly 2 percentage points compared to the 2005 local elections. Meanwhile, the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) share of the overall vote hit a record high of 45.32%, up 7.2 percentage points compared to four years ago.

However, the voter turnout rate for the 2009 local elections was 63.34%, down 4.15 percentage points compared to the 2005 local elections. Therefore, some commentators argue that in spite of an increase in the DPP’s share of the vote, the reason that the KMT’s share of the vote dropped by nearly 2 percentage points could be attributed to the fact that many Blue-camp supporters had not cast votes in the 2009 local elections.

Let’s use Taoyuan County, a Blue-camp stronghold, as an example. In the 2005 local elections, Eric Chu (Li-luan), the then KMT candidate for the county executive, now Deputy Premier, won in a landslide victory over his DPP opponent Cheng Pao-ching with an overwhelming 60.84% of the vote or 488,979 votes, with Cheng garnering 38.32% of the vote or 307,965 votes. By comparison, in the current local elections, John Wu (Chih-yang), son to KMT Honorary Chairman Wu Po-hsiung, bested his DPP opponent Cheng Wen-tsang by fewer than 50,000 votes, a result that was far short of most people’s expectations. Wu won 396,237 votes or 52.22% of the vote with Cheng receiving 346,678 votes or 45.69%.

Compared with the election in 2005, the DPP improved its performance in the Taoyuan County Executive election this year by adding nearly 40,000 votes while the KMT lost over 90,000 votes. In terms of the voter turnout rate, only 53.73% of the local voters cast ballots this year, an 8.04% drop from 61.77% in the previous election. This means that more than 115,000 voters in Taoyuan County chose not to turn out to cast ballots this year and their absence may be the main reason that the KMT garnered 90,000 fewer votes than in 2005. [Editor’s note: The number of eligible voters in Taoyuan County this year was 1,437,190.]

Generally speaking, the result of the 2009 local elections, i.e., KMT 12: DPP 4: Independent 1, still lived up to the KMT’s expectations, though not satisfactory. However, it was definitely a warning signal for the KMT that a number of its supporters had chosen not to participate in the election. The KMT has to take that very seriously. On the other hand, it was obviously a victory for the DPP as it retook Yilan County, expanding its political turf from three to four counties. But if some conclude that the 2009 local elections were a “landslide victory” for the DPP and, therefore, the DPP may return to power in the 2012 Presidential election, it may be too early for them to say that.

(Source: http://www.nownews.com/2009/12/08/142-2543440.htm)

Chih-Yung Ho is Assistant Research Fellow of the National Security Division, National Policy Foundation. 

Attachment : none