Maintenance of Status Quo Latest Vox Populi in Taiwan
By Charles H.C. Kao
(Founder and President Global Views Monthly, Commonwealth Publication Corp.)
Source: United Daily News June 23, 2010
Recently, I have toured the U.S. West Coast and central China. The United States, a superpower, has ambitions through out the entire world, but is showing signs of decline. A rising China, which enjoys the pride of rapid growth, has faced many difficulties in the process of adjustment. As a young democracy and facing both the US and the Mainland, Taiwan, in the midst of political and economic transformation, has to rely on the US for weapons and the Mainland for markets. Taiwan can’t be tough, nor can it find other ways for compromise. After two years of low-profile efforts, President Ma Ying-jeou has proved to the US that he is someone to be trusted. In addition, President Ma Ying-jeou has also proved to the Mainland that his cross-Strait policy is able to create a win-win situation.
In a seminar discussing the US-Mainland-Taiwan triangular relationship held by Stanford University at the end of May, I offered the latest survey conducted by the polling center of Global Views Monthly concerning the views of the people of Taiwan on cross-Strait relations and US arm sales to Taiwan.
Being dominant players in world affairs, the last thing the US or the Mainland wants to see is for Taiwan to become a “troublemaker.” At this moment, the US has to handle huge debt and unemployment problems domestically, while dealing with issues related to North Korea and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, internationally. The US needs to cooperate with the Mainland in all these matters. Therefore, the US would not tolerate re-emerging cross-Strait tensions.
The “best scenario” for cross-Strait relations and the US-Mainland-Taiwan triangular relationship is for everybody to live in peace with each other. That is President Ma’s “no unification, no independence, and no use of force.” That is also the 1992 Consensus, or “one China, different interpretations” (and “one China without interpretation”).
The poll conducted by the Global View Monthly showed that the vox populi of Taiwan has become a major stabilizing factor in this scenario. I cited some figures in the poll with regard to views of the people of Taiwan on the maintenance of the status quo across the Strait.
42.5% of the people surveyed support the maintenance of the status quo across the Strait; 26.2%, support Taiwan independence; 12.4%, support perpetual maintenance of the status quo; 10.5%, support unification.
Generally speaking, 55% of the people surveyed supported the maintenance of the status quo, while 26% of the people supported Taiwan independence.
(2) On the question if a plebiscite on the “maintenance of the status quo of no unification or independence for thirty years” were held, 62.6% of the people surveyed were for the maintenance of the status quo; 17.7% were against it, 17.8% gave no comment; and 1.8% said that they would not vote in the plebiscite.
(3) On the question of which political party, the KMT or the DPP, is more capable of safeguarding Taiwan’s overall interests and cross-Strait peace,” 45.3% of people surveyed said that the KMT was more capable; 29.9% chose the DPP, while 19.2% declined to respond.
No one could underestimate the role played by the US government cross the Straits. Public opinion in Taiwan reflects the following:
(4) On the question of the necessity of Taiwan purchasing defensive weapons from the US, 53% believed it was necessary; 30.6% were against it; and 16.4% declined to respond.
One thing worth noting is that despite the improvement of cross-Strait relations, the percentage of people who believed that it was necessary to purchase weapons from the US gained 5 percentage points as compared to a year earlier. This indicates that even if the status quo is maintained, most people believe that military force was still needed to defend ourselves. For this reason, would the “peace dividend”, as expected, become an illusion?
The most important finding in the poll of the Global Views Monthly is that nearly 2/3 of the people surveyed support the maintenance of the status quo; this is the source of stability in cross-Strait relations and the US-Mainland-Taiwan triangular relationship. It is also in the common interests of the US, the Mainland, and Taiwan. As long as “the status quo is maintained,” the people of Taiwan would be able to pursue personal happiness and national development under no threat of war.