Opinion Poll on Taipei City Mayoral Election

Opinion Poll on Taipei City Mayoral Election

Source: United Daily News and China Times

October 27, 2010

Only 30 days remain before the five Special Municipalities Mayoral elections.  The latest survey conducted by the United Daily News found that KMT candidate Hau Lung-bin was leading DPP Su Tseng-chang 48% to 37%.

However, 15% of the voters stated that they were undecided or declined to answer.  If 14% of these voters ended up voting for Su Tseng-chang and only 1% for Hau Lung-bin, Su could win with 51% of the votes to Hau’s 49%, although this result was within the margin of error.

The survey was conducted from October 23 to 24, with 1,073 people successfully interviewed and 496 people declining to be interviewed.  The margin of error associated with this sample is plus or minus 3 % with a 95 % confidence interval.

According to the China Times, high-ranking officials in the KMT party central stressed, “Taipei is the key for the KMT to win three of the five Special Municipalities Mayoral elections.  However, voters in the Taipei City are still waiting to hear Su Tseng-chang speak of his vision or policies with regard to Taipei.  As the opening of the Taipei Flora Expo approaches, the KMT hopes that the big event could instill a sense of pride among Taipei City inhabitants and give a boost to Hau’s election campaign.”

The same source pointed out that, in addition to the positive effect of the Flora Expo, the direct flights being launched this month between Taipei Songshan Airport and Tokyo Haneda Airport would surely benefit the local economy and boost Hau’s election prospects even higher.  The source added that Hau’s election prospects would increase by leaps and bounds in the run-up to the election.

The primary difficulty the KMT faced was the low turnout rate experienced during the recent legislative by-elections.  The KMT spokesman Su Jun-pin stated that Taiwan’s overall economic situation had improved significantly, proving that the Ma administration’s policies were taking the country in the right direction.  Su added that the KMT would remind the voters that the five Special Municipalities Mayoral elections would decide the direction the cities would chart in the future.

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