Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election
2011/07/05
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Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election
Source: China Times
July 5, 2011
After the 18th KMT National Congress was held at the Wuchi Gymnasium in Taichung City on July 2, an internal opinion poll conducted by the KMT showed that President Ma Ying-jeou’s support rating was 6% ahead of DPP Presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen, exceeding the margin of error. The survey also showed that President Ma only lagged behind Tsai Ing-wen in the 25 to 29 age group. The KMT concluded that public support for President Ma was increasing with the approach of the Presidential election.
DPP deputy secretary-general Fred Hung stated that the support ratings of both President Ma and DPP chairperson Tsai Ing-wen were between 38% and 40% and within the margin of error in accordance with successive opinion polls conducted by the DPP over the past few weeks.
The KMT National Congress formally approved the Ma-Wu Presidential ticket. The internal opinion poll showed the difference between the support ratings of President Ma and Tsai Ing-wen had widened, and a high-echelon official in the campaign office revealed that the election was heating up on the Internet. For example, more Facebook users visited the President Ma’s Facebook page, and the number of people pressing the “like it” option on each message increased from 7,000 or 8,000 to over 10,000. Moreover, the number of people pressing the “like it” option on Ma’s latest message was over 17,000, showing that the election was heating up.
Chen Chun-lin, director of the DDP’s polling center, stated that the DPP had started to conduct a survey each week on the 2012 Presidential election. Overall, the support ratings of both President Ma and DPP chairperson Tsai Ing-wen were around 38% and 40%, and that the proportion of people surveyed who had responded was very close to the 80% turnout rate of the Presidential election. In addition, Chen stated that people who declined to answer in the survey would not go to cast their votes in the Presidential election in accordance with past experience. Chen Chun-lin stressed that even though Tsai’s support rating was slightly ahead of President Ma’s, the difference was still within the margin of error, so he could not claim that Tsai beat President Ma in the opinion poll.
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