Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election and Cross-Strait Policies

Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election and Cross-Strait Policies

Source: Global Views Survey Research Center

July 22, 2011

1. If you were to vote tomorrow, who would you vote for?

	2011/5	2011/6	2011/7
KMT Ma Ying-jeou	38.9%	41.2%	37.3%
DPP Tsai Ing-wen	38.6%	36.3%	37.2%

2. Do you support President Ma Ying-jeou’s cross-Strait policies over the past three years?

Yes	43.9%
No	35.1%

3. Are you aware of Tsai Ing-wen’s cross-Strait policies?

No idea about her cross-Strait policies	73.8%
Know and understand her cross-Strait policies	14%
Know but don’t understand her cross-Strait policies	11.1%

4. What do you think President Ma might do if re-elected as President?

Sign a peace agreement with the Mainland	50.5%
Meet with Chinese Communist Party General-Secretary Hu Jintao	49.6%
Move in the direction of reunification with the Mainland	35.6%

5. What do you think Tsai Ing-wen might do if elected as President?

Eliminate or reduce the number of the Mainland students allowed to study in Taiwan	37.4%
Grant former President Chen Shui-bian a pardon	34.8%
Write a new constitution	33%
Move Taiwan toward independence and establish a new state	29.1%
Revoke all agreements signed during all of the Chiang-Chen Meetings	26.7%
Abrogate the ECFA	23.2%

6. What do you think is President Ma’s stance on Taiwan’s future?

Taiwan independence	5.3%
Maintain the status quo	42.8%
Reunification with the Mainland	33.6%

7. What do you think is Tsai Ing-wen’s stance on Taiwan’s future?

Taiwan independence	38.3%
Maintain the status quo	37.4%
Reunification with the Mainland	3.2%

8. Do you think the DPP supports expanding cross-Strait exchanges?

Yes	36.1%
No	37.5%

9. If the DPP engages in intensive exchanges with the Mainland, do you think that it will be beneficial to Taiwan’s interests?

Beneficial to Taiwan’s overall interests	53.4%
No benefit	25.6%

10. How do you think that the DPP should adjust its cross-Strait policies?

More open	52.5%
More conservative	7.7%
No need to change	8.0%

11. Do you think the KMT or the DPP can better preserve Taiwan’s interests and cross-Strait peace?

KMT	47.5%
DPP	25.1%

12. If cross-Strait relations become worse next year or cross-Strait exchanges decline, what do you think would be the overall impact on Taiwan’s economy and the economic situation of individual households?

Overall economic development in Taiwan

Beneficial to Taiwan	15.3%
Negative impact on Taiwan	58.1%
No impact	2.8%

Economic situation of individual households

Beneficial to Taiwan	7.9%
Negative impact on Taiwan	36.8%
No impact	35.2%

Note: The latest poll was conducted from 18:20 pm to 22:00 pm between July 13 and 15 with 1,229 people surveyed. The margin of error associated with this sample is plus or minus 2.8 % with a 95 % confidence interval.

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