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UDN Opinion Polls on 2012 Presidential and Legislative Elections
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 2011/08/15
Browse：1520
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UDN Opinion Polls on 2012 Presidential and Legislative Elections
Source: Untied Daily News August 15, 2011
In the most recent poll conducted by the United Daily News five months before the 2012 Presidential election, 44% of the respondents stated that they supported KMT Presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou and 36% DPP Presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen.
In comparison with previous polls, the support ratings for Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen did not change much.
However, the support ratings of Ma and Tsai will be affected if People First Party (PFP)’s James Soong decides to run in the 2012 Presidential election. According to the same poll, Ma’s support rating will be reduced to 38% and Tsai’s 31%, with Soong receiving a 15% support rating.
In a detailed analysis, Ma has gained more support among woman aged 40 to 59.
In analysis of Soong’s support rating, 16% of the respondents who favored Ma would change their minds to vote for Soong while 13% of those who supported Tsai would change their minds to vote for Soong. For those who favored neither Ma nor Tsai, 14% supported Soong.
In analysis of voting districts, the situation remains relatively stable. Tsai still leads in Yunlin, Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, Pingtung and Penghu areas, all in the south; Ma leads in Taipei City, New Taipei City, Keelung, Taichung, Changhua, Nantou, Yilan, Hualien, Taitung, Kinmen and Matsu.
In comparison with the poll conducted by the United Daily News one month ago, the variance is within the margin of error.
Among first-time voters, the gap has narrowed as 48% of the respondents stated that they would vote for Ma and 39% for Tsai with 14% still undecided.
One thing worth noting is that although Ma only leads Tsai by 8%, 43% of the respondents believe that Ma will win the 2012 Presidential election, while 21% believe that Tsai will win; 36% of the respondents gave no comment.
The latest poll was conducted on August 11-14 with 2,014 people successfully surveyed, while 966 people declined to be surveyed. The margin of error associated with this sample is plus or minus 2.2 % with a 95 % confidence interval.
2012 Presidential Election Poll
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%
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July 1st , 2011
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August 14th , 2011
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Ma
Ying-jeou (KMT)
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Tsai Ing-wen
(DPP)
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Ma Ying-jeou
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Tsai
Ing-wen
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Overall
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43
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37
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44
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36
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Taipei City, New Taipei City, and Keelung
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45
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37
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50
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32
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Taoyuan, HsinChu and Miaoli
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50
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31
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51
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27
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Taichung, Changhua and Nantou
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45
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32
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45
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33
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Yulin, Chiayi, and Tainan
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32
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48
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33
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44
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Kaohsiung, Pingtung, and Penghu
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38
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44
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37
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44
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Yilan, Hualien, Taitung, Kinmen and Matsu
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43
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29
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46
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33
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In addition, in the latest survey conducted by the United Daily News, the KMT received a 37% support rating while the DPP gained a 30% support rating in party votes for the upcoming legislative elections.
According to the poll, the 5% support rating the PFP received indicates that the PFP would likely garner enough votes allowing the party to win at least two at-large seats (party list). The PFP hopes that they could gain at least one district seat so that they could establish a party caucus along with the two at-large seats in the Legislative Yuan.
The Republic of China adopts a “Single-seat District, Two Ballots” system for legislative elections, in which one ballot is cast for a political party and the other for a candidate.
According to a poll conducted by the United Daily News six month ago on party ballots, 37% of the respondents supported the KMT and 32% for the DPP. None of the other political parties received more than a 1% support rating.
However, after the PFP published its first wave of candidates for district legislators on August 10th, the PFP support rating increased substantially to 5%. There were relatively small changes in the support ratings of the KMT and the DPP in the party ballot survey with the KMT receiving 35% and the DPP 30%.
Party Ballot Survey for Up-coming Legislative Elections
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%
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KMT
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DPP
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PFP
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Other political parties
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Overall
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37
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30
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5
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2
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Taipei City, New Taipei City, and Keelung
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41
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26
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5
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3
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Taoyuan, HsinChu and Miaoli
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49
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21
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6
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1
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Taichung, Changhua and Nantou
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35
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30
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6
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3
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Yulin, Chiayi, and Tainan
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29
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39
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2
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2
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Kaohsiung, Pingtung, and Penghu
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30
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41
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6
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1
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Yilan, Hualien, Taitung, Kinmen and Matsu
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37
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25
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6
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1
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Attachment
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