UDN Latest Poll: 73% Identify Themselves as Taiwanese, 46% Want to Maintain Status Quo Forever

 

 

Source: United Daily News    March 14, 2016

 

 

The Taipei-based United Daily published the results of its latest opinion poll on March 14, indicating that 73% of the respondents identify themselves as “Taiwanese,” the highest percentage in 20 years (44% in 1996; 55% in 2006). 

 

According to the survey, 11% of the respondents identify themselves as “Chinese,” down from 31% in 1996, 20% in 2006. Meanwhile, 10% of the respondents stated that they were both “Taiwanese” and “Chinese,” while 1% of the respondents hold the view that “Taiwanese” was tantamount to “Chinese” ; 6% of the respondents gave no comment.  

 

On questions related to Taiwan’s future, the survey indicates that 19% of the respondents believe that Taiwan should become independent as soon as possible, while 17% believe that Taiwan should maintain the status quo, and then seek to become independent later, while 4% favor immediate unification; 8% support gradual unification; 46% want to maintain the status quo forever; 6% gave no comment.    

 

On trend analysis, a survey conducted by the same newspaper in 1998 indicated that 18% of the respondents believed that Taiwan should maintain the status quo forever. This figure increased to 35% in 2003, 40% in 2004 and 50% in 2010. Last year, the figure stood at a historical high of 55%, but decreased to 46% in this year’s latest survey.   

 

According to the survey, the number of people who support immediate independence/gradual independence increased by 8% compared to last year, a historical high as indicated in a 2003 survey. 

 

The survey indicates that the percentage of those who support eventual reunification with the Mainland declined to 10% from 30% in 1998.     

 

On generational analysis, the survey indicates that 85% of respondents aged between 20 to 29 identify themselves as Taiwanese, while 29% favor immediate independence; 25% gradual independence, higher than groups aged above 30.     

 

When asked what risk was tolerable in the pursuit of formal Taiwan independence in a multiple choice question, 43% of the respondents said they were willing to risk a drastic decline in the number of Mainland tourists visiting Taiwan, while 21% said they were willing to risk Taiwan losing most of its diplomatic partners or going to war for Taiwan independence. Meanwhile, 16% of the respondents said they were willing to risk a Mainland economic blockade due to Taiwan independence, but 23% of the respondents said that none of the risks mentioned were worth Taiwan independence.    

 

The latest poll was conducted from February 15-19 with 1,019 people successfully surveyed, while 649 people declined to reply. The margin of error associated with this sample is plus or minus 3.1 % with a 95 % confidence interval.