Taiwan under Dramatic Changes of Both “One Belt, One Road” and TPP

  Taiwan under Dramatic Changes of Both “One Belt, One Road” and TPP

United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)

May 17, 2017

 Translation of an Except

For the “One Belt, One Road” International Summit Forum, 29 heads of state, leaders of over 70 international organizations and representatives of over 130 countries attended. The project “One Belt, One Road” covers along their paths 65% of the world's population, three quarters of the energy resources, 40% of the GDP globally; the Mainland’s trade with countries along the “One Belt, One Road” exceeded US$1.4 trillion. Between 2014 and 2016, over 70 countries and international organizations took part in the construction projects related to “One Belt, One Road.” Originally, the Obama administration used all efforts to boycott “One Belt, One Road,” but Trump changed the attitude, sending this time Steven Bannon, senior director for Asia Pacific in the National Security Council, at the head of the US delegation for participation.

Another noteworthy development is the changes of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP). The TPP, the regional trade agreement of the highest specifications and the greatest scale in human history, was designed to integrate 40% of the world’s economy. Originally, it was Obama’s strategy to use it to counter China in trade and in rebalancing to Asia-Pacific; unexpectedly, Trump, once sworn in, declared that the United States decided to withdraw from the TPP.

The current situation in which Taiwan finds itself, in both the “One Belt, One Road” and the TPP is that Taiwan lacks a leverage point; it can only heave a sigh of regret. However, the Tsai government seems to believe that as long as Taiwan actively explores the "New Southward Policy," it can avoid Mainland China's pressure on us. In fact, this counter China policy has not yet made progress, while already attracting endless sources of resistance. More importantly, the Tsai government may have overlooked the great changes in the world that are now in progress: the "Maritime Silk Road" in the “One Belt, One Road” project has considerable business opportunities, covering an area mostly overlapping with that of our New Southward Policy. What will we face? Is it competition, cooperation, or containment?

We must also remind the Tsai government that in facing a new international situation, Taiwan's economic/trade and foreign policy strategies definitely need a review anew. Originally, Taiwan hoped to rely on US support to accede to TPP in the second round, and by the means of this to expand to establish a new relationship of economic alliance in order to promote Taiwan's economic upgrading. However, Trump declared the US’s withdrawal from the TPP, deflating Taiwan's expectations. And should the Chinese Mainland accede to the TPP, while cross-Strait relations remained in an impasse, Taiwan’s accession would be even less likely.

In fairness, a large part of the “One Belt, One Road” project is still only plans on paper. However, it represents the grandiose ambition and goals in “globalization” of the Beijing authorities. Looking back at Taiwan, the ruling party has, on the other hand, opted for an ostrich mentality of not willing to look straight at the situation; this would make our distance from the world greater and greater.

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