icon
kmt logo block 正體中文 | 日本語
block
new icon  
img
title img
about kmt KMT Introduction Chairman's Biography Organization History Charter block
block
img
block block block KMT News block General News block Editorials block Survey block Opinions block block
header image

Trump Wants to Win Trade War or Re-Election?

icon2019/08/22
iconBrowse:361

 Trump Wants to Win Trade War or Re-Election?

 

United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan)

 

August 19, 2019


 Translation of an Excerpt

 

 

The US-China trade talks broke down in Shanghai at the end of July; Trump immediately declared retaliation, saying that the US would impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports worth US$300 billion beginning September 1. However, less than half a month later, the US government announced that the additional 10% tariff mentioned above would be postponed until December 15. Subsequently, the ban on US exports to Huawei will also be postponed for 90 days. The outside circle’s explanation is that this time in his confrontation with Xi Jinping, Trump “blinked” first.

 

Trump’s strategy of battle, playing for real or playing for bluff, off and on, not only befuddled Beijing, but also threw the global trade order off balance. More importantly, for many years, the manufacturing industry has been moving out from the US, and many consumer goods for daily living are no longer produced at home. Trump has repeatedly imposed additional tariffs on imports from China; in last year’s wave, the burden was absorbed by importers and manufacturers; however, in the wave this year, the burden would inevitably be shifted to US consumers. Trump endlessly adopts punitive measures; although they hurt the opponent, Wall Street's stock market gyrates, entangling many US enterprises and investors. Now even US consumers will be harmed.

 

The US will hold a presidential election on November 3 next year; if the voters are highly dissatisfied with Trump’s economic policies, the public and enterprises will suffer the consequences, which inevitably will be unfavorable to his re-election bid. This is a reality that Trump cannot but face squarely. When the global economy is slowing down, the US performance was originally one exception, going strong; however, recently the US stock markets have suffered plunges, and in recent days, a phenomenon of yield inversion in the bond market has occurred, both affecting investor confidence; examining this situation, Trump seems to be unable to bear domestic pressure, thus he could not but postpone the imposition of additional tariffs on notebooks, cell phones, and other consumer goods until after the yuletide shopping season, in order to avoid an early outburst of people’s dissatisfaction.

 

However, what is noteworthy is that currently the yield inversion in the US bond market elicits sharp declines in the Dow Jones indices. Since 1954, in ten instances of yield inversion, economic recessions occurred two years later nine out of ten times. In other words, when Trump was seeking re-election, the economic outlook would be bleak. Following this, people will see a Trump filled with anxiety and agitation, who would make a series of cavalier and brusque moves, causing more unpredictable changes. However egoistic Trump may be, it probably would not be easy for him to walk smoothly on the tightrope between the trade war and the electoral campaign.

 

iconAttachment : none 


Copyright©2024 Kuomintang Address: No.232~234, Sec. 2, BaDe Rd., Zhongshan District, Taipei City, Taiwan (ROC)  
image