In the White House’s Mind, Taiwan’s Weight Is Diminishing
2019/12/20
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In the White House’s Mind, Taiwan’s Weight Is Diminishing
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan)
December 18, 2019
Translation of an Excerpt
After the US and China reached the first phase trade agreement, their bilateral relationship will be reset. It is judged that in the future it will be based on a keynote of "strategic competition", while confrontations in the diplomatic, economic/trade, and strategy areas will continue. Basically, the possibility of an all-out trade war, new cold war, even military conflict can be excluded.
In its relations with the US, the DPP’s wishful thinking has been utilizing the contradictions of the US-China "new cold war", erecting a foreign policy axis based on "coalescing with the US to counter China". During the US-China trade war for over a year in the past, US Vice President Pence and Secretary of State Pompeo issued, in a high-profile, statements friendly to Taiwan, but the one-China policy of the US has never been loosened; the US recognizes the PRC government as the only legitimate government of China, and not considering the ROC as a sovereign entity remains its consistent position. US Assistant Secretary of State for Asia-Pacific Affairs Stillwell publicly indicated that he observed the "Taiwan Relations Act" and the three US-China communiqués, but "will not refer to Taiwan as a state", fundamentally destroying the DPP's dream.
Following the resignation of National Security adviser Bolton in September, Randy Schriver, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, Taiwan’s staunchest supporter, will also leave his post. His "anti-China, friendly to Taiwan" hawkish role has been well-known in Washington, D.C., but because his policy advocacies could not be fully implemented at the Pentagon and the White House, he decided to resign from his position. The moves of these senior policy officials demonstrate that in the US-China-Taiwan triangular relationship, Taiwan's weight is diminishing, and concrete actions in support of Taiwan are not priority policy items.
The US and China have avoided all-out confrontation in their trade negotiations, and also deeply understood that delinking the US and China would only create mutual isolation and hostilities, conversely escalating the risks of confrontation; under the mode of competition, perhaps a wholesome, benign, mutually respectful mode and formula of resolution could be developed. The crux of the matter lies in that both countries appreciate that their common interests and degree of reliance could not be cut apart. Taiwan cannot grasp the international reality and geopolitical factors; thus, the Tsai government's option of a single direction to choose the US has shaped an irreparable mistaken policy. President Trump’s anxiety for achievement and benefits, under the pressure of his electoral campaign for a second term, urgently needing the short-term effect of reaching an agreement with the PRC, has reduced the importance of the Taiwan factor quietly in the process.
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