Saying Goodbye to Taiwan Has Always Been an American Option

 Saying Goodbye to Taiwan Has Always Been an American Option

United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan)

March 23, 2020

 Translation of an Excerpt

In the perception of the US decision-making elite group, the situation for the long-term competition and confrontation between the US and China has already been formed. Taiwan, in the short-term may be a chess piece for "countering China" and in the long-term may be a factor for "changing China". However, these values ​​do not constitute an inevitable requirement for the US to "safeguard Taiwan." Although US hawkish elites have advocated "supporting Taiwan," there are, nevertheless, no lack of views for "forsaking Taiwan", believing that at the same time when China endlessly develops stronger, no matter whether Taiwan accepts Beijing’s terms or persists in dragging on, it eventually cannot avoid becoming a part of China.

Moreover, Taiwan and the Mainland are separated by only 75 to 100 nautical miles; under the constraints of geographical conditions, no US government official will dare to categorically make a commitment to send forces to defend Taiwan, based on the provisions of the "Taiwan Relations Act”, to wit:“The President is directed to inform the Congress promptly of any threat to the security or the social or economic system of the people on Taiwan and any danger to the interests of the United States arising therefrom. The President and the Congress shall determine, in accordance with constitutional processes, appropriate action by the United States in response to any such danger”.

Whether the COVID-19 epidemic situation in the US can be smoothly brought under control and whether Trump will be hurt in the electoral campaign are two unknowns. Whether Xi Jinping has turned from strong to weak inside the party and domestic politics as a result of the epidemic situation is also beyond speculation. In the four years ahead, as the changes in the US-China situation pose a great uncertainty, whether "relying on the US to counter China" is in Taiwan's best interests is definitely difficult to reach a conclusion.

Facing the dismantling of the balanced trilateral relationship between China, the United States, and Taiwan, we believe that President Tsai is seriously pondering; in the four years ahead, how do we deal with the coordinates of Taiwan-US relations as well as cross-Strait relations? 

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