Opinion Poll on 2102 Presidential Election

Opinion Poll on 2102 Presidential Election

Sources: All Taipei Newspapers

November 7, 2011

On November 6, the Taiwanese Association for Pacific Ocean Development (TAPOD) released the results of its latest poll two months before the 2012 Presidential election.  According to the poll, 38% of the respondents support President Ma Ying-jeou, 30.7% Tsai Ing-wen, and 9.7% James Soong.

Further analysis of the poll results shows that those who support President Ma include 23.5% of the respondents who say they advocate Taiwan independence, 61.5% of the respondents who say they advocate unification with the Mainland, and 46.4% of the respondents who say they advocate maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.  TAPOD chairman You Ying-lung said that even 20% of the voters advocating Taiwan independence supported President Ma.

When asked which candidate was capable of dealing with the complex cross-Strait relations, 41.3% of the respondents replied President Ma, 16% Tsai Ing-wen, and 17.4% James Soong.  When asked which candidate was capable of resolving Taiwan’s diplomatic predicament, 42.1% of the respondents replied President Ma, 21.9% Tsai Ing-wen, and 11.9% James Soong.

The poll also indicated that 47.2% of the respondents believed that it was highly likely that President Ma would win the 2012 Presidential election, 26.9% Tsai Ing-wen, and 2.1% James Soong.  When asked which candidate’s election would put the voters’ minds at ease, 38.4% of the respondents replied President Ma, 28.5% Tsai Ing-wen, and 11.1% James Soong.

The latest poll was conducted between October 31 and November 2 with 1,680 people surveyed.  The margin of error associated with this sample is plus or minus 2.39% with a 95% confidence interval.

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