TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election

TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election

Source: TVBS

November 23, 2011

1.      The Presidential Election and the legislative elections will be held on January 14^th, 2012.  Are you going to vote?

	2011/4/27	2011/5/19	2011/5/30	2011/6/20	2011/7/7	2011/7/21	2011/8/15	2011/8/30	2011/9/14
Definitely yes	64%	61%	59%	59%	57%	59%	65%	59%	56%
Possibly	22%	23%	22%	23%	23%	22%	20%	21%	24%
Not Sure	6%	5%	6%	7%	6%	6%	4%	6%	6%
Definitely no	9%	11%	13%	10%	13%	14%	11%	14%	14%

	2011/9/20	2011/9/22	2011/9/28	2011/11/3	2011/11/10	2011/11/16
Definitely yes	56%	57%	55%	58%	59%	61%
Possibly	27%	25%	26%	25%	23%	22%
Not Sure	5%	6%	5%	5%	5%	5%
Definitely no	13%	12%	13%	12%	13%	11%

	2011/11/23
Definitely yes	60%
Possibly	22%
Not Sure	4%
Definitely no	13%

2. The Central Election Commission (CEC) confirmed that People First Party Chairman James Soong James Soong collected enough endorsements to register as a candidate in the 2012 Presidential election.  If you were to vote tomorrow, which of the three following tickets would you vote for?

	2011/7/21	2011/8/15	2011/8/30	2011/9/14	2011/9/20	2011/9/22	2011/9/28
KMT Ma-Wu ticket	38%	39%	40%	42%	43%	42%	40%
DPP Tsai-Su ticket	36%	35%	32%	34%	32%	32%	33%
PFP Soong-Lin ticket	13%	16%	17%	14%	14%	15%	14%
Undecided	12%	9%	12%	10%	11%	11%	13%

	2011/10/6	2011/10/12	2011/10/20	2011/10/26	2011/10/31	2011/11/3	2011/11/10	2011/11/16	2011/11/23
KMT Ma-Wu ticket	40%	38%	43%	42%	39%	38%	39%	39%	40%
DPP Tsai-Su ticket	35%	34%	35%	33%	33%	35%	38%	39%	38%
PFP Soong-Lin ticket	13%	15%	12%	13%	9%	14%	9%	9%	7%
Undecided	13%	13%	10%	12%	20%	13%	14%	12%	15%

3.  No matter for whom you plan to vote, do you like Ma Ying-jeou?

	2011/9/22	2011/9/28	2011/11/3	2011/11/10	2011/11/16	2011/11/23
Like him very much	8%	9%	9%	11%	11%	10%
Somewhat like him	37%	35%	32%	31%	32%	32%
Somewhat dislike him	21%	21%	17%	20%	18%	17%
Dislike him very much	15%	15%	17%	16%	18%	16%
No opinion	18%	21%	25%	23%	21%	25%

4. No matter for whom you plan to vote, do you like Tsai Ing-wen?

	2011/9/22	2011/9/28	2011/11/3	2011/11/10	2011/11/16	2011/11/23
Like her very much	10%	10%	12%	15%	14%	14%
Somewhat like her	33%	36%	30%	31%	33%	30%
Somewhat dislike her	22%	18%	17%	18%	17%	15%
Dislike her very much	13%	12%	13%	12%	12%	11%
No opinion	23%	24%	27%	24%	25%	29%

5. No matter for whom plan to you vote, do you like James Soong?

	2011/9/22	2011/9/28	2011/11/3	2011/11/10	2011/11/16	2011/11/23
Like him very much	7%	5%	8%	6%	5%	5%
Somewhat like him	28%	29%	27%	22%	28%	25%
Somewhat dislike him	27%	24%	23%	27%	25%	24%
Dislike him very much	15%	16%	12%	18%	17%	14%
No opinion	24%	25%	30%	27%	25%	32%

6. The KMT made public its party list last week. Did you know this?

Yes	44%
No	56%

7. Overall, are you satisfied with the KMT’s party list?

Very satisfied	15%
Somewhat satisfied	35%
Somewhat dissatisfied	9%
Very dissatisfied	5%
Not clear about the list	16%
No opinion	19%

8. The DPP has made public its party list. Did you know this?

Yes	33%
No	67%

9. Overall, are you satisfied with the DPP’s party list?

Very satisfied	5%
Somewhat satisfied	23%
Somewhat dissatisfied	22%
Very dissatisfied	18%
Not clear about the list	14%
No opinion	19%

10. If you plan on voting for James Soong but decide he is unlikely to win the 2012 Presidential election, will you switch your vote to Ma Ying-jeou or Tsai Ing-wen, or insist on voting for James Soong?

	2011/11/10	2011/11/16	2011/11/23
Ma Ying-jeou	11%	19%	15%
Tsai Ing-wen	3%	8%	5%
James Soong	76%	65%	68%
Cast invalid votes/Don’t go to vote	2%	5%	4%
Don’t know	8%	3%	8%

Note: The latest poll was conducted from 18:30 pm to 22:00 pm between November 21 and 23 with 2,110 people surveyed. The margin of error associated with this sample is plus or minus 2.1 % with a 95 % confidence interval.

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